Eurasia Insight:
KYRGYZ LAW-ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ON HIGH ALERT AS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION NEARS
Egamberdy Kabulov: 2/25/05

As Kyrgyzstan‘s tumultuous parliamentary election campaign winds down, incumbent authorities are appealing for calm, while opposition activists are calling for a transparent vote.

The Interior Ministry has placed law enforcement personnel on high alert as Kyrgyzstani citizens prepare to cast ballots on February 27. It is the first national election in a former Soviet republic since the presidential vote in Ukraine in late 2004 -- an event that produced mass protests and regime change in that Central European country. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Kyrgyz leaders, from President Askar Akayev on down, have openly and repeatedly expressed concern that outside political forces were intent on fanning revolutionary fervor in Kyrgyzstan.

“If there is no interference from outside, the parliamentary elections will pass in a calm situation,” the Interfax news agency quoted Akayev as saying.

The last few days have been anything but calm, with protests occurring in virtually all corners of the country. In most cases, local concerns have been at the source of discontent, with protesters seeking to overturn decisions disqualifying candidates. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In one instance, the Central Election Commission reversed an earlier ruling barring Sadyr Japarov from standing as a candidate in the 71st electoral constituency. The re-instatement of Japarov’s candidacy prompted his supporters to stop a protest that had blocked the Balykchi-Karakol road, the AKIpress news agency reported.

In Bishkek, a riot occurred outside the offices of the opposition-leaning MSN newspaper on February 24. Police took 10 people into custody for allegedly trying to “storm” the newspapers offices, adding that the detainees were upset by a recent MSN story that supposedly contained “insulting remarks about the Kyrgyz nation,” AKIpress reported.

In all, 390 candidates will be battling for 75 parliamentary seats in the country’s reconfigured, unicameral parliament. The rancor that has marked the election campaign prompted Prime Minister Nikolai Tanayev on February 24 to urge that voters and candidates to keep their partisan passions in check. “The [protests] are undermining the country’s attractiveness in terms of investment,” Tanayev told journalists.

Opposition activists, concerned that the government may try to massage the election results to enhance its political advantage, are preparing to conduct comprehensive monitoring of voting procedures and ballot tallying. In an interview published in the Lemon newspaper on February 25, US Ambassador Steven Young called for a transparent election. “For us [Washington], it is important that democratization continue. The grade for this [the democratization process] will depend on how the election goes.”

The same day, Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry officials criticized earlier comments by Young in an interview broadcast February 18 by Radio Liberty. In that interview, the envoy cautioned Kyrgyz officials that violations of electoral norms could prompt the United States and other nations to downgrade relations with Bishkek. The Foreign Ministry officially requested that Young be “more restrained” in his comments on the electoral process.

As has been the case during the election campaign, mass media stands to play an important role in post-election developments. Opposition supporters have long complained that Akayev, along with friends and family members, enjoy a virtual monopoly on broadcast media outlets, and have used this advantage to promote the candidacies of government supporters, including the president’s daughter, Bermet. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. These broadcast outlets are likely to continue their support for Akayev’s political position during the post-election period, critics say.

Opposition supporters have relied on several newspapers, with readership limited mainly to Bishkek, to spread their messages. One newspaper, MSN, has emerged as a touchstone for controversy during the election campaign, underscored by the February 24 disturbance at its editorial offices. Akayev and other officials have assailed the newspaper for printing stories that cast the incumbent administration in an unfavorable light. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While virtually no one discounts the possibility of an “Orange Revolution-scenario” from occurring in Kyrgyzstan, many note that the lack of unity among Kyrgyz opposition forces makes a repetition of the events in Ukraine and Georgia unlikely. At the same time, some Bishkek political observers believe the elections may produce an undesirable result for Akayev. While the opposition is likely to capture only a small number of seats, they say, there is a possibility that Akayev will not end up with a dependable parliamentary majority. Leading candidates in many electoral districts are businessmen and politicians whose loyalties to the incumbent administration could shift, depending on political circumstances.

The reliability of parliament’s support for Akayev could prove pivotal for Kyrgyzstan’s political future. The country is scheduled to hold a presidential election in October, and, at present, the constitution prohibits Akayev from seeking re-election. Some observers suggest that Akayev wants to engineer a referendum that could alter the constitution, enabling him to run for another presidential term, or to manage a transfer of power to a hand-picked successor. To accomplish either aim, the president would need a solid legislative majority behind him. If Akayev is unable to control the legislature, a destabilizing presidential succession struggle could ensue.

Editor’s Note: Egamberdy Kabulov is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist in Kyrgyzstan.