Eurasia Insight:
GEORGIA: SKEPTICISM CLOUDS PRELIMINARY DEAL ON RUSSIA'S ENTRY INTO WTO
Molly Corso: 2/26/08

After nearly two years of negotiations, Georgian recently officials announced that they had reached a “preliminary agreement” on Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Tbilisi is staying tight-lipped about specifics, while Georgian analysts remain skeptical about the possibility of a full Georgian-Russian rapprochement.

Tamara Kovziridze, the deputy economic minister in charge of the WTO negotiations, indicated that the “preliminary agreement” between Georgia and Russia establishes a framework under which Tbilisi would support Moscow’s entry into the WTO. Perhaps the thorniest issue to be clarified involves a Georgian government demand that Russia uphold its 2004 commitment to legalize the two checkpoints between Russia and the separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Such a move would enable Tbilisi to post border guards at those checkpoints. Currently there are no Georgian border guards at either the Psou River, which separates the territory of Abkhazia and Russia, or the Roki Tunnel connecting South Ossetia with Russia.

In a telephone interview with EurasiaNet, Kovziridze said that the meeting in Geneva on February 22 was “quite constructive.”

“So far, we agree that there is a problem [with the two checkpoints],” she said, adding that Russian officials are now willing to address the issue within the “framework” of the WTO negotiations. Moscow’s reluctance to do this in the past constituted a major sticking point in negotiations.

Kovziridze noted that “details” about the agreement will be discussed at the next meeting, tentatively scheduled for March. Georgia is the only WTO member who has not signed off on Russia’s membership; according to Russian media reports, Moscow wants to join the organization by the end of 2008.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has neither confirmed nor denied the existence of a preliminary WTO agreement with Georgia.

Meanwhile, Georgian Foreign Minister Davit Bakradze indicated, in comments published by the weekly Kviris Palitra, that Tbilisi hopes a bargain on the WTO would open the way for Russia to end its trade embargo on many types of Georgian goods, in particular wine. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. “We want Russia to be a member of the World Trade Organization because this organization, with its rules and regulations, will allow for civilized trade relations with Russia,” Bakradze said.

While Georgian officials are tentatively applauding the process, separatist leaders in Abkhazia and South Ossetia are categorically opposed to permitting Georgian border guards to operate in the de-facto states. In a telephone conversation with Georgian television station Rustavi 2 February 25, Mikheil Mindzaev, the South Ossetian interior minister, said that “no one” will be able to control Roki Tunnel except for South Ossetians.

“If the Russian and Georgian sides want to jointly control the Roki tunnel, they can do it on the Georgian-South Ossetian border,” he said, noting that “any other country” that wants to control the border “will receive a categorical refusal.”

Abkhazian de-facto authorities voiced similar sentiments, telling Rustavi 2 on February 25 that any joint border control between Russia and Georgia on the separatists’ territory is “impossible.”

Georgian analysts and opposition leaders don’t quite know what to make of the fact that after being stalled for so long, the talks appear to have made sudden progress. Presidents Mikheil Saakashvili and Vladimir Putin managed to make some basic concessions concerning the resumption of air traffic between Georgia and Russia after the 17-month transportation blockade. Even so, there is little evidence that relations between the two countries are truly on the mend. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Opposition leaders, including Davit Gamkrelidze, the head of the New Rights party, want to know if the “preliminary agreement” includes any dark bargains between Georgia and Russia. In a statement to the press on February 22, he worried about the prospect of warmer relations with Russia coming at the expense of Georgia’s aspirations to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

However, Vasili Chkoidze, the chief of the staff for parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee, ruled out any change of policy concerning NATO, noting that Georgia’s aspirations to join the alliance are not “Saakashvili’s personal decision.”

Political analyst Dr. Giorgi Khutsishvili did not rule out that there might be some “hidden points” in the agreement, but added that the fact that the agreement appeared to be made openly was a “good sign.” He went on to exclude the possibility that Georgia is seeking to “appease” Russia in order to ensure that the Kremlin will not recognize the de-facto governments of Abkhazia or South Ossetia. “[F]or Georgia it [Kosovo’s declaration of independence] was not such a pressure moment – to use everything in order to eliminate this threat,” Khutsishvili said, adding that Georgia has guarantees from high level Russia authorities, including Putin, that Russia will not recognize either Abkhazia or South Ossetia. “The threat was not so strong.”

The Georgian government has vigorously challenged the notion that it would make any serious concessions in its negotiations with Russia. Bakradze, in his comments to Kviris Palitra, insisted that it is up to Russia to “resolve key issues” – largely the checkpoints – in order to receive Georgia’s vote for WTO membership.

According to Chkoidze, it will be “difficult” for Russia to honor any obligation concerning the checkpoints because that is in direct contradiction to its “traditional” policy toward Georgia and the de-facto states.

“It is possible [to legalize the check points]; logic dictates that it must happen but sometimes in Russia’s policy we find no pragmatism or logic,” he said. “They [Russia] may promise or they may say we understand this control this way and Georgians understand it another way. They may make some [attempt] … not to implement this commitment.”

He added that Moscow has made “promises” before during earlier negotiations but reneged on them later.

Kovziridze did not rule out that the current talks could fall through, although she said she remained optimistic. She noted that the two sides “did not discuss” why Russia is suddenly willing to honor Georgia’s demands.

Editor’s Note: Molly Corso is a freelance reporter and photojournalist based in Tbilisi.