Eurasia Insight:
IRAN'S CONSERVATIVE AGENDA: BOULD "AN ISLAMIC JAPAN"
Banafsheh Keynoush: 3/03/04
A EurasiaNet commentary

The conservative takeover of the Iranian legislature is, without doubt, a setback for political reform development in Iran. At the same time, the conservatives seem prepared to promote economic reforms, and to probe possibilities for normalizing Iranian-US relations.

Iran’s conservative leaders guaranteed themselves victory in February’s parliamentary elections by having the hardliner-dominated watchdog agency, the Guardian Council, disqualify hundreds of reformist candidates, including sitting members of parliament, prior to the vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Guardian Council has the power to bar candidates from running and to veto parliamentary legislation.

The parliamentary election results were widely maligned in the international community as rigged. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Conservatives have largely shrugged off the outside criticism. In the domestic arena, conservatives are hoping that widespread public apathy towards politics, evident prior to the election, will hold, thus diminishing questions about the new parliament’s legitimacy.

Conservative leaders have made it clear that they do not believe political pluralism is conducive to overcoming Iran’s myriad social and economic challenges. Accordingly, they will likely seek to place firm limits on basic democratic rights, including freedom of speech and an independent press. In general, conservatives will seek to expand the state’s authority over civic and religious institutions. At the same time, conservatives may aim to relieve some of the building discontent among Iran’s vast under-30 population with well-targeted, yet largely token moves that ease some social and political restrictions.

To a large extent, the conservatives’ political fortunes will be tied to their ability to solve the country’s deep economic dilemmas. According to some estimates, conservatives will have to create 800,000 jobs a year to ease the country’s chronic unemployment problem. The next parliament is thus expected to push through economic reforms designed to create jobs and satisfy rising demand for consumer goods. Ali Haddad Adel -- whose conservative Abadgaran (Renovators) Party won almost all the seats in Tehran, and who stands to become the next parliament speaker -- has already announced that he intends to turn Iran into "an Islamic Japan."

To obtain breathing room for economic reforms, Iranian conservatives are likely to explore ways to normalize relations with the United States. In seeking a rapprochement, conservatives can feel assured of broad popular support. In one recent poll, over 70 percent of Iranians favored the re-establishment of ties between Iran and the United States. The normalization of diplomatic relations, many conservatives feel, offers the best guarantee against a Bush administration attempt to destabilize Iran. In trying to get the United States to abandon existing trade sanctions, conservatives will hold out the potential for cooperation with US officials on key issues, including the ongoing reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq.

More broadly, Iranian conservatives will seek to soften Iran’s international image, striving to strengthen ties with its neighbors and expand trade relations with the European Union. To secure a greater level of international trust, a conservative-dominated Iran may prove open to greater cooperation with global institutions concerning oversight of Tehran’s nuclear programs.

Popular apathy may well be an ally of conservatives in the implementation of their agenda. To many Iranians at present, it matters little whether the reformists or conservatives are in power because either way, expectations are low that authorities can produce needed political and economic reforms. Some reform-minded Iranians even favor conservatives over reformists, who, in their opinion, lack the power to deliver promises.

Voter turnout figures in the February 20 election reflect the apathetic mood in Iran. According to official statistics, less than 29 percent of eligible voters turned out in Tehran to cast ballots. Nationwide, voter turnout was around 50 percent, a sharp drop from 67 percent in the last parliamentary elections in 2000. Some reform-minded observers maintain that pro-conservative elements padded voting statistics, and turnout was actually significantly lower than officially reported. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

A few Iran observers say that the most significant obstacle to reform in recent years has been political infighting between conservative and reformist forces. The February 20 election appeared to settle that power struggle in the conservatives’ favor, thus possibly reopening the window of opportunity for reform, they add.

While political reform may have been put on hold by the conservative electoral triumph, many observers believe the process to promote democracy within an Islamic framework is already irreversible. Regardless of who takes power in Iran, students and activists will remain a powerful force in Iran’s political future. In addition, conservatives will not be able to completely stifle the reformist opposition.

Iran’s political evolution will continue, and how the conservatives choose to deal with it will determine Iran’s long-term stability. The interplay of Iran’s reformist and conservative agendas, along with Iran’s future foreign policy towards its neighbors, Europe and the United States will determine whether or not the conservatives will be successful in ensuring Iran’s stability and the security of the Islamic regime.

Editor’s Note: Banafsheh Keynoush is a freelance writer specializing in Iranian affairs.