TURKISH GOVERNMENT CONSIDERS NEXT STEP AFTER PARLIAMENTARY REJECTION OF US TROOP PROPOSAL
Mevlut Katik: 3/03/03

While a prominent Ankara columnist warns of a potential "earthquake" in Turkish-American relations, Turkey’s leading politicians are standing behind the Parliament’s March 1 refusal to host American bases for a possible assault on Iraq. With Turkish and US officials reportedly continuing discussions on the issue, parliament may yet satisfy Washington. But such a second vote will probably not happen until at least mid-March – around the time that the United States had contemplated launching its campaign to oust Saddam Hussein.

Nearly 100 members of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) either abstained or joined opposition deputies in voting against the basing rights. Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated the parliament may revisit the US troop question, but no decision has been made on the timing of another vote. Many political experts believe a re-vote will not take place until after a March 9 parliamentary by-election in which Erdogan is a candidate.

Prime Minister Abdullah Gul sought to put the best spin possible on the parliamentary vote, characterizing it as "a result of democracy." On March 3, the prime minister sought to reassure markets, announcing fresh measures to promote Turkey’s compliance with an IMF reform framework. Despite Gul’s efforts, Turkey’s markets plunged on March 3.

Political analysts, meanwhile, are concerned about possible consequences for Turkish-American relations. Sedat Ergin, Hurriyet’s Ankara bureau chief, warned that "unless reversed, it is inevitable that this decision will trigger a huge earthquake in Turkish-American relations."

While Ergin chastised parliament for failing approve the US troop proposal, he also criticized the Bush administration, saying it had taken Turkey for granted and had overlooked the Turkish public’s misgivings about a war. These miscalculations had already produced a "road accident," said the columnist; more permanent ruptures, he implied, may await.

Publicly, US military planners say they are studying ways to revamp their Iraq invasion blueprint, which, prior to the March 1 rejection, had called for American troops to open a northern front in Iraq, launching their offensive from Turkish soil. But some Turkish observers fear the United States will retaliate against parliament’s snub, if the US troop rejection is allowed to stand. Specifically, the analysts say a US aid package for Turkey, potentially worth upwards of $30 billion, will be shelved. "Economic, political and security agreements that have been negotiated between Turkey and the United States for months, and that are ready for signing, will not be signed," Ergin wrote.

Other commentators hailed the vote, saying that launching military operations against Iraq would expose Turkey to disastrous consequences. "This decision has saved the country (and possibly the world) from one of the most serious [security] threats … faced since the founding of the [Turkish] republic," wrote Fehmi Koru in the Yeni Safak newspaper.

Erdogan voiced support for Turkey’s democratic process, and expressed hope that the United States would accept parliament’s ultimate decision, whatever the outcome. "We did everything a democratic administration has to do," he said. "Our party has opened a new page in Turkish political tradition by making intra-party democracy work, through not taking a [binding] party group decision [before the voting]."

According to Erdogan, "the Turkish-American strategic partnership has not been formed in one day, and it is not possible ruin it in one day." Gul, for his part, warned Baghdad not to infer any support from the vote. He also stressed that the United States, by respecting the outcome of the vote, had supported Turkey’s evolution as a democracy.

The coming days will pose a sizable challenge for the AKP’s leadership ability, some experts say. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The Iraq issue is forcing the relatively untested AKP government to attempt a delicate balancing act, involving divergent US and European Union interests, as well as the concerns of domestic constituents. Some experts believe the March 9 parliamentary by-election will be viewed in Turkey as a referendum on the AKP’s governing ability.

Whatever the outcome of the by-election, most analysts think the government has no choice but to resubmit the US troop proposal to parliament. "We think that the government will submit the motion to parliament [again] for both renewing confidence in itself and for Turkey’s security," Guneri Civaoglu wrote in the Milliyet daily.

In doing so, though, the AKP government will be taking a significant risk. "If the motion is rejected for a second time, there will be neither an economy, nor an AKP government left," an said an editorial in the Radikal daily.

Editor’s Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent.

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Posted March 3, 2003 © Eurasianet
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