Turkish Government Considers Next Step After Parliamentary Rejection of US Troop Proposal

Nearly 100 members of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) either abstained or joined opposition deputies in voting against the basing rights. Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated the parliament may revisit the US troop question, but no decision has been made on the timing of another vote. Many political experts believe a re-vote will not take place until after a March 9 parliamentary by-election in which Erdogan is a candidate.

Prime Minister Abdullah Gul sought to put the best spin possible on the parliamentary vote, characterizing it as "a result of democracy." On March 3, the prime minister sought to reassure markets, announcing fresh measures to promote Turkey's compliance with an IMF reform framework. Despite Gul's efforts, Turkey's markets plunged on March 3.

Political analysts, meanwhile, are concerned about possible consequences for Turkish-American relations. Sedat Ergin, Hurriyet's Ankara bureau chief, warned that "unless reversed, it is inevitable that this decision will trigger a huge earthquake in Turkish-American relations."

While Ergin chastised parliament for failing approve the US troop proposal, he also criticized the Bush administration, saying it had taken Turkey for granted and had overlooked the Turkish public's misgivings about a war. These miscalculations had already produced a "road accident," said the columnist; more permanent ruptures, he implied, may await.

Publicly, US military planners say they are studying ways to revamp their Iraq invasion blueprint, which, prior to the March 1 rejection, had called for American troops to open a northern front in Iraq, launching their offensive from Turkish soil. But some Turkish observers fear the United States will retaliate against parliament's snub, if the US troop rejection is allowed to stand. Specifically, the analysts say a US aid package for Turkey, potentially worth upwards of $30 billion, will be shelved. "Economic, political and security agreements that have been negotiated between Turkey and the United States for months, and that are ready for signing, will not be signed," Ergin wrote.

Other commentators hailed the vote, saying that launching military operations against Iraq would expose Turkey to disastrous consequences. "This decision has saved the country (and possibly the world) from one of the most serious [security] threats