Eurasia Insight:
CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, NOT TERRORISM, MAIN SOURCE OF PANKISI INSTABILITY - OPINION POLL CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, NOT TERRORISM, MAIN SOURCE OF PANKISI INSTABILITY-OPINION POLL
Ariel Cohen: 3/04/02

A large majority of Georgians do not believe al Qaeda and Afghanistan-linked terrorists are the main problem in the Pankisi Gorge. Instead, they suspect Georgian officials of involvement in criminal wrongdoings in the region. These are two of several paradoxical findings of a recent opinion poll in Tbilisi.

The Georgian Opinion Research Business International (GORBI), a political and commercial pollster, also found in its February 28 poll that while a majority of respondents believe that the United States is the country best suited to address the security concerns in the Pankisi area, over two-thirds believe that US involvement in security operations would cause Georgian-Russian relations to deteriorate. At the same time, "most Georgians see Russia as the only way to improve national and household economic conditions," according to a prepared statement released by GORBI.

The polling results suggest that Georgian society views the looming deployment of US military advisors with mixed feelings. [See related EurasiaNet story].

Many Georgians believe that the Pankisi Gorge has become a center for drug trafficking and smuggling. Fully 44 percent believe that high-ranking Georgian officials may be involved in criminal activities in the gorge. This finding is consistent with very high numbers of Georgians, over 80 percent, who believe that their government institutions are corrupt. Only 21 percent of those polled believe that high ranking Russian officials may also be involved in criminal activities in Pankisi. Meanwhile, only 8.9 percent of respondents believe that terrorists from Afghanistan are residing in the Pankisi area.

A large majority of Georgians seems anxious about the situation: 84.2 percent say they are "concerned" or "very concerned," and only 1.5 percent say they are "not concerned." 73.3 percent of respondents believe the situation is dangerous: 45.2 percent consider it "very dangerous" and 28.1 percent "dangerous." Only 2.5 percent of the polled believe it is "not dangerous."

Despite a recent increase of sympathy towards Russia, 51 percent of those polled believe that the United States is the country most capable of bringing about an improvement of the security situation in the Pankisi region. Almost 28 percent think that Russia can improve Pankisi security, while only 11 percent believe Georgian forces can do the job. Just over 10 percent say Western Europe can help.

Georgians distinguish between American military assistance and direct involvement on the ground: while a majority, 57.5 percent, would support US military advisors equipping and training Georgian forces for a mission in Pankisi, only 43.4 percent would support direct American action there. An overwhelming 75.1 percent would oppose Russian military action, while only 10 percent would support or "strongly support" Moscow's involvement.

A plurality of Georgians (41. 5 percent) would prefer not to see foreign troops deploy in the Pankisi Gorge. If such deployment is unavoidable, Georgians would prefer Americans to Russians by a wide margin - 23.8 percent would favor US troops, while 9.4 percent would welcome Russian soldiers. Meanwhile, 22 percent would favor an international force under UN auspices. The notion of a joint US-EU-Russian military operation received only a lukewarm response from Georgians - only 44.3 percent would support it, while 26.7 would oppose it.

The GORBI poll is based on interviews conducted February 28 with 500 Tbilisi residents, selected at random. There was no margin of error cited for the poll. GORBI was founded in 1992 and has broad experience in public opinion research throughout the Caucasus region.

Editor’s Note: Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and author of Russian Imperialism: Development and Crisis (Praeger/Greenwood, 1998).