Eurasia Insight:
STEALTH MOVE: AMERICAN TROOPS TO RETURN TO UZBEKISTAN AMID THAW
3/05/08

After a concerted campaign by Washington to reopen the channels of communication with Uzbekistan, American troops may be returning to the Central Asian nation almost three years after being unceremoniously booted out amid the fallout over the 2005 Andijan events. Uzbekistan’s apparent readiness to make a sudden geopolitical turn could prompt consternation in the Kremlin, and have important implications for the Caspian Basin energy contest.

The announcement came in a roundabout manner, with Robert Simmons, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s special envoy for the Caucasus and Central Asia, telling Russian journalists during a Moscow news conference March 5 that troops from NATO countries would soon have access to a military airbase at Termez, on the Uzbek-Afghan border. Up until now, the base has been used exclusively by German soldiers. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

“We welcome the fact Uzbekistan has shown readiness to allow other countries to use this airbase,” the Interfax news agency quoted Simmons as saying. “As far as I understand, the United States is beginning to use this facility [at Termez].”

Uzbek government officials did not make any official statements either confirming or denying Simmons’ comments. If accurate, the return of US forces to Uzbekistan would mark a quantum leap forward in the effort to restore a strategic relationship that went into the deep freeze following the Andijan events. In July 2005, the Uzbek government ordered US forces to leave an airbase in Karshi-Khanabad (K2).

The Termez facility, like the K2 base in the past, is used to provide logistical support for ongoing allied military operations in Afghanistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Over roughly the past year, US officials had been carrying out a quiet, but persistent campaign to re-engage Uzbek authorities. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The pivotal visit apparently involved Adm. William Fallon, head of the US Central Command, who reportedly laid the groundwork for the return of American forces, this time to the Termez facility. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

During his late January visit, Uzbek media largely ignored Fallon. The admiral was quoted as saying -- accurately, though somewhat misleadingly -- that the United States had no interest in a return to the K2 base. There was no mention of the Termez facility.

According to the official news agency UzA, however, Fallon discussed substantive issues with President Islam Karimov and other top Uzbek leaders. ”The sides exchanged opinions about areas of mutual interest, including regional security, stability in Afghanistan, efforts against international terrorism, drug trade, and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as well as other threats,” the news agency said.

While the announcement seemed to come out of nowhere, Uzbek observers described the return of American forces as a logical next step in the US-Uzbek rapprochement process. “It’s not surprising given the Uzbek authorities general unwillingness to release information,” one Tashkent-based expert said, referring to the government’s lack of comment. “But the thaw in relations is obvious.”

The timing of the announcement is also noteworthy, as it occurred at a point when Russia is preoccupied with a political transition, as Dmitri Medvedev is set to assume the presidency from Vladimir Putin following a carefully stage-managed election on March 2. Given the inward focus of Russian officialdom at present, there was no immediate comment from the Russian Foreign Ministry on the announcement.

Some experts believe the news was certain to upset Russian policy makers. In the aftermath of Andijan, Uzbekistan greatly enhanced security cooperation with Russia and China. Currently, Moscow is intent on cementing its control over energy export routes in the region. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The return of US troops to Uzbekistan would likely embolden Tashkent to resist Russian pressure to go along with the Kremlin’s geopolitical and economic plans for the region.

At least one Uzbek analyst, however, believes that Russia is not overly concerned by the revival of a US military presence in Uzbekistan.

“I think the reason behind this [granting NATO troops expanded access to the Termez base] is the same as in 2001 -- Afghanistan,” said a Tashkent-based analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Uzbekistan does not want an unstable Afghanistan. Everyone likes throwing Americans out of their bases and gloating about their failures, but they realize that if Americans leave Afghanistan, it will be a serious blow to all Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan in the first place.”

“Both then [in 2001] and now, Russia has been aware [of Uzbek-American negotiations],” the analyst continued. “It was probably the reason behind Karimov’s rushed visit to Moscow right after he met with the American central command chief [Fallon]. Russia -- Uzbekistan’s key ally -- is also not interested in getting involved in Afghanistan. ‘Let the Americans waste their money and troops.’ But, as soon as they are finished, they can be got rid of -- they have been thrown out once, they can be thrown out again.”