Azerbaijan: Ex-Minister's Trial Creates Political Sensation

The trial of former Azerbaijani Health Minister Ali Insanov, one of the founders of the country's ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party, is promising to disrupt the political calm that has prevailed in this energy-rich South Caucasus state since its 2005 parliamentary elections.

From its start on February 15, Insanov's trial has magnetized the public, and made daily headlines. The 61-year-old former minister played an active role in the 1993 return to power of the late President Heydar Aliyev, father of Azerbaijan's current leader, Ilham Aliyev, and was once considered one of Azerbaijan's most influential cabinet members. He was arrested on the eve of the 2005 parliamentary vote, and, along with former Economic Development Minister Farhad Aliyev and a few other high-level officials, charged with corruption and a coup attempt against President Aliyev. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

At the time, many ordinary Azerbaijanis welcomed the arrest. During 12 years as minister of health, Insanov's name had become largely synonymous with pervasive corruption in the country's healthcare system.

Yet in putting Insanov on trial, prosecutors may end up getting more than they bargained for. In a string of enraged statements, the former minister has announced that he is joining the opposition, and threatened to reveal details about government corruption.

"All charges against me are faked. Ali Insanov is a political prisoner and nobody can deny it," he fumed at his opening trial, local media reported. Insanov claims that his criticism of government policy, and speeches about low living standards that he allegedly delivered at YAP meetings alone prompted his arrest. Prosecution charges that he is guilty of misappropriating some $3.5 billion from healthcare system privatizations are "nonsense," he contends.

"How is it possible to steal $3.5 billion only in the healthcare system while the entire privatization [process] in Azerbaijan, according to official data, amounts to about $500 million?" Insanov quizzed prosecutors on February 21. The former minister did not deny that his relatives had enjoyed a "green light" for such privatization tenders, but asserted that all members of the government had acted similarly. "Each minister had his own sector where their relatives had all the benefits," he said. "I am accused of misappropriation, but I have no yachts, private airplanes, industrial facilities and big farms as other government members do."

In response, Insanov, who has compared his prison term with the 27 years spent in jail by Nobel Prize-winning anti-apartheid activist and former South African President Nelson Mandela, has announced that he is setting up his own opposition party, and threatened the court with "more personal" exposés of official corruption.

"The authorities said they want to have a real opposition in the country," he raged on February 28. "Now they have it!"

For now, though, the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party and government are giving little public sign of unease with Insanov's threats.

"What has the opposition achieved so far? I do not think that Insanov's transfer to the opposition would change anything," commented YAP Deputy Executive Secretary and parliamentarian Mubariz Gurbanly in an interview with EurasiaNet. Gurbanly denied that Insanov had ever once criticized YAP policies during ten years of high-level party meetings. A February 16 press statement from YAP dismissed Insanov's statements as "political blackmail and slander."

Opposition media and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondents, however, were blocked from several of Insanov's trial sessions, although the ban was later lifted. Both the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the United States embassy in Baku are daily monitoring the trial.

Meanwhile, leaders of Azerbaijan's main oppsition parties have stated that they accept apologies from Insanov issued to opposition Musavat Party Chairman Isa Gambar, former Democratic Party of Azerbaijan Chairman Rasul Guliyev and opposition Yeni Musavat newspaper editor-in-chief Rauf Arifoglu, and say that they are ready to cooperate with him.

But some analysts question the benefits Insanov could bring to Azerbaijan's relatively weak opposition. "Why should we believe that Ali Insanov will be more successful than, for example, [former parliamentary speaker and current exiled head] of the opposition Democratic Party of Azerbaijan] Rasul Guliyev?" asked Baku-based independent political analyst Rasim Musabeyov. "Everybody knows about his [Insanov's] involvement in corruption."

One former high-level official disagrees, however. By denouncing the government so publicly, Insanov has given a signal to officials who, like the former minister, come from Armenia, and may still look on him as the regional group's "unofficial leader", argued Eldar Namazov, a former aide to the late President Heydar Aliyev and former head of the opposition election alliance YeS.

"Regionalism is a serious factor in Azerbaijani politics," Namazov said. "If people originally from Armenia will be active in [Insanov's] party at the [presidential] elections in 2008, for the first time since 1993 we will have a situation when this regional group [from Armenia] will support the opposition." Azerbaijanis from Armenia, known as Yez-Ar, are among the most active groups in the country's political life. Among their number are Parliamentary Speaker Ogtay Asadov and Prime Minister Artur Rasizade.

Analyst Musabeyov and Zafar Guliyev, an analyst with the pro-opposition Turan Analytical Group, disagree with Namazov, however.

"The regional factor is important in Azerbaijani politics, but we should not exaggerate the consolidation of this regional group," said Musabeyov. "We cannot say that the entire group is centered around Ali Insanov."

Basing Insanov's planned opposition party around a regional association would be "a mistake," added Guliyev. "It will be very difficult to change power in Azerbaijan only by using the support of a regional clan," he said. "The factor of social discontent in Azerbaijan is much more important. But it is still a question whether the ex-minister will be able to use this factor properly."

So far, public displays of support for Insanov have been relatively limited.

At a February 19 press conference in Baku, Rizvan Talibov, leader of the Movement for Return to Western Azerbaijan, a group of Yer-Az, demanded the minister's release and pledged to start demonstrations "as soon as Insanov gives us the signal." A group of doctors who call themselves the ex-minister's "followers" and former colleagues have also appealed to President Aliyev to release Insanov.

The muted public response, however, is unlikely to faze or quiet the embittered ex-health minister. As he warned prosecutors at his February 28 trial: "[I]t is not a good idea to make Insanov angry."