Eurasia Insight:
GEORGIA: TBILISI STARTS TO FEEL THE BACKLASH OF KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE
Molly Corso: 3/06/08

President Mikheil Saakashvili’s administration in Georgia is confronting a new crisis involving Russia, which on March 6 announced that it no longer feels bound by a 1996 CIS agreement that imposed trade restrictions on the separatist-minded territory of Abkhazia. At the same time, Saakashvili is contending with a fresh wave of domestic opposition discontent.

According to a Russian Foreign Ministry statement, Moscow cited “a change of circumstances” as justification for its decision to abandon the guidelines contained in the CIS pact, titled "On Measures to Regulate the Conflict in Abkhazia, Georgia." That agreement established trade and financial sanctions on the breakaway territory. Political observers in Tbilisi and in the West saw the Russian move as a response to the recent international recognition of Kosovo. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Also, on March 6, the legislature of the Russian territory of North Ossetia, along with that of Georgia’s separatist-minded entity, South Ossetia, adopted a joint appeal asking that the Russia's parliament recognize South Ossetia's independence. Georgian Foreign Minister David Bakradze assailed Russia for its unilateral action on Abkhazia, saying that "any support of separatism from a neighboring state is illegal," the Itar-Tass news agency reported. "This is a dangerous decision. … We are entering an absolutely new situation that could result in any outcome."

Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze cautioned Russia against any further moves that might advance the cause of Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence, pointing out that the Kremlin has its own nationalities issues that it must contend with. “I’ll tell you one thing,” the speaker was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying, “if Russia does do something like that [recognize Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence], it will mark the start of Russia’s own self-destruction.”

While the Saakashvili administration girds for a new round of tension with the Kremlin, it is keeping one eye on Tbilisi, where Georgian opposition groups once again are vowing to launch protests. The cause this time is supposedly the government’s decision to backtrack on a political deal concerning parliamentary election rules. Saakashvili and his opponents have been at odds for over four months, causing considerable disruption to the already hard-pressed economy. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Koba Davitashvili, the head of the opposition People’s Party and a member of the United Opposition Movement (UOM), declared that the group would organize a new round of mass demonstrations starting on March 9. The announcement came less than a week after the UOM experienced its first major schism, when, on February 29, the moderate Republican Party announced that it would field its own candidates for upcoming parliamentary elections in May.

An opposition effort to launch a nationwide hunger strike collapsed in late February from an apparent lack of popular support. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav021908a.shtml But a government effort to alter the rules by which MPs will be elected seems to have reinvigorated the opposition’s desire to mount protests.

A package of constitutional amendments to alter the election process was adopted by parliament March 4 on its first reading by a near unanimous margin. Under the amendments, half of parliament’s 150 seats would be elected from party lists. The other half would be determined in first-past-the-post races in 75 electoral districts. Parliament is expected to go through the second and third readings of the amendments as early as March 11. If enacted, the amendments could make it easier for Saakashvili’s governing National Movement Party to retain its dominating legislative majority.

Opposition leaders complained that the amendments violate a memo of understanding with the government. That agreement reportedly provided for a complicated electoral formula, in which party-list voting would determine outcomes on both the national and constituency level. Such a formula, Saakashvili critics say, offered the opposition the best way to maximize its number of seats in the next parliament.

According to Tina Khidasheli, a prominent member of the Republican Party, the attempt to adopt amendments represents not only a violation of verbal and written agreements between the administration and the opposition, it is also unconstitutional. Khidasheli and other opposition leaders also indicate that recent developments shattered any trust that they had in the Saakashvili administration. “We understood that it [the agreed parliament format] was a done deal,” she told EurasiaNet. “[I]t was supported by a constitutional amendment sitting in parliament. That was not just words they gave to us.”

On March 5, Burjanadze dismissed the opposition’s complaints, suggesting that protests were not merely a means of opposition political activity, but an end in itself. Speaking to Georgian journalists during a trip to Brussels, she accused the opposition of “setting ultimatums on everything” and noted that she “does not believe the [political] processes will improve” if the opposition continues taking its arguments to the streets.

Editor’s Note: Molly Corso is a freelance reporter and photojournalist based in Tbilisi.