Historical Factors Influence Turkey's Stance on Iraq War

The Turkish parliament's reluctance to accept US troop deployment reflects widespread concern among the country's governing class about the merits of overhauling the region's geopolitical balance. Many are loath to abandon the cautious, if not isolationist, foreign policy principles established by the founders of the Turkish Republic.

On the surface, the Grand National Assembly, Turkey's parliament, simply yielded to the overwhelming pacifist emotions of the public when it voted March 1 not to permit American deployment. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Roughly 90 per cent of Turks, according to polls, oppose Turkey's potential involvement in the war against Iraq. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party, described the parliament's vote as "a completely democratic result."

Besides popular opposition to a war to oust Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, however, the parliament vote was the product of a deeply rooted political instinct in Turkey. It is an understanding that, historically, Turkey's security interests are better served by maintaining regional stability than by altering the existing geopolitical order.

A sizeable segment of Turkey's political class remains wary of the Bush administration's grandiose plans to revamp the Middle East. Many in Ankara are particularly concerned about the possible consequences for Turkey of a regional geopolitical restructuring. The March 1 parliament vote was, according to political analyst Burak Bekdil, mostly "the product of Washington's failure to convince the Turkish military, which traditionally has an upper hand in deciding on security matters, that its war plans