Kazakhstan: The Emerging Middle Class Thinks Money, Not Democracy

Conventional political wisdom holds that a growing middle class in any given state is often a harbinger of an expansion of civil society, as those with property seek the means to defend it from arbitrary state action. This principle has yet to manifest itself in Kazakhstan, where the substantial middle class that has emerged since the Soviet collapse in 1991 remains almost exclusively interested in economic affairs, according to an observer of Central Asian affairs.

A middle class has emerged in Kazakhstan with startling speed, John C. K. Daly, an expert on Central Asian affairs and an international affairs analyst for the UPI news agency, said during a March 5 presentation Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC. The country's abundance of natural resources, of course, played a major role in the middle class' rapid emergence. But in overhauling the country's economy, Daly noted, the government succeeded in giving "everybody from the oligarchs to the guy on the farm a stake in looking for political stability, rather than radical reforms."

"There has been a genuine trickle down throughout Kazakh society," Daly said, adding that President Nursultan Nazarbayev's administration "saw a stable middle class as a guarantor of social stability against everything from religious extremism to agrarian riots." The administration also believed a middle class would hasten the strengthening of a Kazakhstani state "with defined borders, running its own affairs."

At present, about one in four citizens in Kazakhstan can qualify as being in the middle class, Daly estimated. This roughly 25 percent share of the population is responsible for consuming between 50 percent and 80 percent of the goods and services sold in the country. Incomes, he added, have been growing at a double-digit rate since 2001. In 2007, per capita GDP in Kazakhstan was estimated at over $11,000.

As the middle class has expanded, Kazakhstan has experienced a rapid decline in the number of citizens living in poverty. "According to UN figures, Kazakhstan halved its poverty rate in five years, from 1998 to 2003," Daly said. At present, about one in five citizens is estimated to live below the poverty line.

Middle class development continues to serve as the "cornerstone of [Nazarbayev's] economic and social policies," Daly said. This orientation is readily apparent in the government's education policy, which has sought to provide all citizens with a solid basic education, while implementing programs, such as Bolashak scholarships, that are designed to identify and develop the most talented students through study abroad.

One of the keys to Kazakhstan's economic transformation was the Nazarbayev administration's emphasis on the privatization of the agrarian sector. "Kazak people on the farm, to a certain extent, have been turned into good little capitalists," Daly said. Even so, a wide discrepancy continues to exist between urban and rural living standards, with incomes in cities far higher than those in rural areas.

The government decision to privatize much of the housing sector also played an important role in enabling middle-class development. At present, roughly 80 percent of the economy is in private hands, according to Daly.

Daly argued that the rapid rise in living standard in Kazakhstan is the main factor in rendering the middle class politically apathetic. Times have been so good in recent years that there has been little need for people to worry about politics. "You think about it, 1991 to 2008 -- 17 years: you own your own apartment; you have a Japanese car; one of the favorite tourist destinations is the United Arab Emirates—which, of course, makes sense if you ever spent a winter in northern Kazakhstan; your kid got a Bolashak scholarship to Harvard. Why rock the boat?" Daly suggested.

Although Daly did not touch upon it, a not-so-subtle intimidation factor is also influencing middle class decisions concerning politics. Many undoubtedly can recall what happened to the leaders of Kazakhstan's first opposition movement, Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK), which appeared in early 2002. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Nazarbayev, showing no willingness to tolerate the slightest dissent from his policies, quickly clamped down on the movement, and its leaders ended up in prison. Political successor organizations to DCK, such as the Ak Zhol Party, have faced similar political persecution. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].