Armenia: US Genocide Recognition Resolution Fosters Hopes for Peace with Turkey

A US congressional committee's approval of a non-binding, draft resolution to recognize Ottoman Turkey's 1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide has sparked optimism among some Armenian analysts and pro-government politicians that the measure will push Turkey to reconcile with Armenia.

The March 4 decision by the US House of Representatives' Committee on Foreign Relations was narrowly carried by one vote (23 to 22) and the measure has yet to be scheduled for debate by the full US House of Representatives.

Nonetheless, the committee's deliberations were watched in Yerevan with as much attention as the September 2008 match between the Armenian and Turkish soccer teams, a game that kicked off the "football diplomacy" that led to the current reconciliation process. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive.]

The optimism that has followed the vote is centered on two fronts. On the domestic front, reconciliation supporters believe that the measure undermines opponents' argument that restoring ties with Turkey will put an end to Armenia's international campaign for genocide recognition. On the external front, such supporters also believe that the Committee's resolution vote will somehow push Turkey to ratify the reconciliation protocols, a step they say is necessary before the Armenian parliament can follow suit.

"This was a crucial argument to prove that the protocols and the process of the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations do not hinder the adoption of the resolution [recognizing Ottoman Turkey's 1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide]," Parliamentary Deputy Speaker Samvel Nikoian, a member of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, commented to EurasiaNet.org about the House Committee on Foreign Relations' vote.

Armen Rustamian, a senior member of the opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun, counters that the House committee decision only underlines that the protocols now pose the main obstacle to a US genocide recognition -- a goal which his party, along with various US-based Armenian Diaspora lobby groups, has long promoted.

"As we all saw, this time the arguments for voting against [the resolution] were only the ill-fated protocols and the efforts not to hinder the settlement process," argued Rustamian. "This should be a lesson for our deputies: They have to realize the extent to which the settlement process can challenge our interests."

Members of Armenia's ruling coalition, however, seem to believe that Yerevan can still, conceivably, accomplish its official goal of reconciliation with Turkey. In 1993, Turkey severed diplomatic relations with Armenia and closed its border with the Caucasus state to protest Armenia's conflict with Turkish ally Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh.

"Of course, Turkey will show strong resistance in the beginning, but will finally ratify the protocols before April 24, before the [US] president's April 24 speech [on the 95th anniversary of the 1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians], to prevent the adoption of the resolution by Congress," predicted Aram Safarian, a member of the Prosperous Armenia Party's political board.

As of yet, though, Ankara shows no inclination to follow that course of action. On March 9, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an stated that Ankara would not return its ambassador to Washington " unless we get a clear sign on the outcome of the situation" about the non-binding resolution on recognition of the 1915 slaughter as genocide, the Anatolian news service reported.

Undaunted, some analysts remain optimistic.

Independent analyst Artak Shakarian, an expert on Turkey, believes that the non-binding resolution "is quite a serious lever for the US over Turkey: Turkey understood that the US is serious about settling Armenian-Turkish relations because such a resolution is largely within US foreign interests."

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to differ. Clinton has pledged that the White House" will work very hard to make sure it [the non-binding resolution] does not go to the House floor" for a vote, news sites reported.

Similar measures have won committee approval three times previously -- in 2000, 2005 and 2007 -- but none were brought to a full House vote.

Nonetheless, Armenian hopes for a full House vote linger on. Another analyst, Karen Bekarian, head of the non-governmental organization European Integration, even believes that the prospect of a vote in 2010 on the non-binding genocide resolution could diminish opposition to Turkish-Armenian reconciliation from longtime Armenian foe, Azerbaijan.

"This time Azerbaijan will see Turkey is under serious pressure and will not condemn Turkey's settling relations with Armenia, as it does now," Bekarian commented.

Apparently sensing the complexity of the moment, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian in a March 6 interview with Armenian public television cautioned that "tying up the recognition of the genocide by Turkey with the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations has no prospects, to say the least."

Meanwhile, Yerevan itself appears to be trying to keep its options open on reconciliation with Turkey.

President Serzh Sargsyan submitted the protocols to parliament on February 15 for discussion, but the agreement has not yet been scheduled for debate.

On March 6, the president took a further step, signing into law a bill that will allow Yerevan to withdraw from signed international treaties, whether or not they have been ratified. The measure is seen as a likely fallback plan for the 2009 protocols with Turkey if the disadvantages of such an agreement begin to outweigh the advantages. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive.]