EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Latest Round of Sackings Portends More Instability in Turkmenistan

EURASIA INSIGHT

LATEST ROUND OF SACKINGS PORTENDS MORE INSTABILITY IN TURKMENISTAN

Rustem Safronov 3/15/02

Political upheaval is spreading in Turkmenistan, as the country’s mercurial leader, Saparmurat Niyazov, expands a purge of the state security apparatus. The most recent casualties include the country’s defense minister and secret police chief. Overall, Niyazov has sacked an estimated 80 percent of the state security service’s senior leadership in recent days.

Niyazov announced the removal of Committee of National Security (KNB) chief Mukhammed Nazarov and Defense Minister Gurbandurdy Begenzhov at a special meeting March 14 of the so-called power ministries, which include government agencies responsible for internal and external security. Begenzhov had held his position for less than a year.

In removing Nazarov and Begenzhov, Niyazov forced public confessions of anti-state behavior that were reminiscent of the Stalinist purge trials of the 1930s. "Esteemed president, you believed in [me] for a long period of time. I was unable to justify your trust," Nazarov told Niyazov during a segment of the March 14 meeting broadcast on state television. "My guilt in all these circumtances is very great. � A number of breaches of law were committed. The guilt is not only mine."

When it came to selecting replacements, Niyazov appeared to consider personal loyalty a higher priority than previous experience. He named Col. Gen. Poran Berdiev, former Interior Minister, to replace Nazarov, while Parliament Speaker Redzhepbuy Arazov was tapped to become the new defense minister. Niyazov also elevated Berdiev to deputy chairman of the cabinet ministers, responsible for oversight and coordination of the three power ministries.

The personnel moves raise questions about the government’s capabilities. Arazov had previously been responsible for coordination of the power ministries, but had been removed for incompetence. Meanwhile, Berdiev appears to lack experience in the state security apparatus.

Niyazov initiated the purges March 4 by announcing the formation of a special commission to probe the illicit activities of the Committee of National Security, including corrupt practices and human rights violations. According to pro-government website Turkmenistan.ru, investigators have established that Hait Kakaev, former top KNB official in Ashgabat, engaged in embezzlement and other criminal behavior. They alleged that Kakaev had illegally amassed vast personal wealth, including 31 vehicles, a private hotel, a brick factory and an eighteen-room mansion.

Few people doubt that Turkmen officials have abused their official positions for personal gain. But observers say it is unlikely that Niyazov’s commission was able to uncover evidence of corruption only during the past 10 days. Most believe Niyazov has long known about corruption in the security services. Some experts allege that top security officials amassed their fortunes through involvement in narcotics trafficking.

Experts are divided over the motives for Niyazov’s actions. Opposition leader Boris Shikhmuradov attributed the shakeup to Niyazov’s concern about cracks appearing in the country’s authoritian system [See related EurasiaNet article]. Shikhmuradov also indicated that in specifically citing the ousted security officials of human rights abuses, Niyazov may be attempting to improve his international image.

Dr. Murad Esenov, editor-in-chief of the Swedish-based journal "Central Asia & the Caucasus" believes Niyazov is trying to secure his own personal authority - which has been damaged by the recent defections of top-level politicians to the opposition - by sacrificing some of his most prominent lieutenants.

One source, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested that Niyazov’s moves were nothing much out of the ordinary. The Turkmen leader, the source pointed out, has a habit of reshuffling top leaders frequently, out of an apparent belief that high government turnover is beneficial for his cult of personality.

Melissa Carr, Director of Harvard University’s Caspian Studies Program warns that it could take weeks or even months to understand if Niyazov’s recent moves are indicative of serious change. Turkmen historian Shokhrat Kadyrov, on the other hand, believes Niyazov is still firmly in control, and will remain in place until Moscow decides it’s time for him to be removed.

Editor�s Note: Rustem Safronov is a frequent contributor to the BBC’s Russian Service and Voice of America’s Eurasian Service. He contributed a chapter on "Islam in Turkmenistan" for The Center for Political & Strategic Studies’ book "Islam in Central Asia." He worked in Turkmenistan during the Soviet period for the State Archives and for the Central Committee of Komsomol in Ashgabat.

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