Eurasia Insight:
US OFFICIALS GIVE HIGH MARKS TO KARIMOV ON WASHINGTON VISIT
Ariel Cohen: 3/18/02

The US government is putting the best face possible on Uzbek President Islam Karimov's visit to Washington. Officials from the State Department, National Security Council and the Pentagon stress that Karimov promised to improve Uzbekistan's human rights record, adding that they believe Karimov is sincere in his desire to promote civil society in the Central Asian nation.

Karimov ended his US visit on March 14 with several stops in New York, including a brief visit to the downtown site where the World Trade Center buildings once stood. The same day in Washington, officials gave Karimov's performance high marks. The Uzbek leader has faced widespread criticism in recent years for a crackdown on basic rights in Uzbekistan [for background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. But Bush Administration officials insisted that Karimov recognized domestic rights conditions in Uzbekistan needed to improve. The Uzbek leader also admitted that his government had to relinquish total control over the economy.

"He is not stupid," one US official said. "He delivered a surprisingly intelligent speech to the business community; and his remarks to President Bush were quite sincere - unless he deserves an Oscar for acting."

Some advocates have worried that by stepping up aid to Uzbekistan after joining the war on terrorism, the United States would reward Karimov's repressive rule. One official, speaking on background, disputed that notion. "He understands that he has a problem with human rights, and he openly said so. He owes the United States his security, if not his survival," the official said. "I don't think he will string us on and lead us by the nose."

Karimov certainly seemed humbled, according to note-takers, at his meetings with President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell. The Uzbek leader repeatedly voiced appreciation for the Americans' respectful and low-key tone, say government officials with knowledge of the meetings. Karimov gave a clear-cut promise to "improve behavior" in the future.

"If only anyone explained these things to me this way before," Karimov reportedly lamented, "we would be along the way to implement these reforms... These issues are our responsibility. We will follow through on what we signed. I understand that Uzbekistan needs it, not the United States."

US officials said both Bush and Powell stressed to Karimov that without significant improvements on human rights and economic liberalization, the US Congress will not be receptive to further allocations of economic and security assistance.

US officials suggest that Karimov has already moved to fulfill his pledge to improve the country's democratic climate. Prior to arriving in Washington, the Uzbek government registered a human rights organization, and released over 800 political prisoners from prison. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Human rights organizations have praised Karimov's recent moves, but say they alone do not comprise a liberalization trend.

Karimov's actions follow a big increase in American aid. In the current supplemental 2002 US assistance budget, Uzbekistan is about to receive over $155 million - $83.5 million above the aid allocated prior to the September 11 attacks. The US Export-Import Bank also inked a fresh $55 million credit facility for small and midsize Uzbek businesses during Karimov's visit. About one-half the aid total will consist of security assistance, including communications gear for the Uzbek military and programs aimed specifically at improving border patrols. The remaining half of aid would be devoted to a wide variety of socio-economic areas, including programs to combat the spread of HIV/AIDS, the environmental rehabilitation of the Aral Sea basin and improvements in social services in the Ferghana Valley, Central Asia's agricultural heartland and center of radical Islamic sentiment.

In Washington, Karimov also reached out to the international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after repeatedly snubbing these organizations' advice for years. The IMF closed its offices in Uzbekistan in 2001, citing frustration over the Karimov government's reluctance to carry out essential reforms, including the convertibility of the local currency, the som.

The Bush Administration officials who deal with Uzbekistan on a daily basis told EurasiaNet that they understand that they must pursue human rights and political liberties in the name of security. Without security, there will be no investment; but without investment, there will be no economic development. However, they also stressed that in the middle of the war on terrorism, security takes the front seat.

Karimov remains concerned about national security and in Washington held meetings with top defense department officials. Indeed, the centerpiece of his visit was the signing of a Declaration of Strategic Cooperation. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The Pentagon has taken a lead in cooperating, training and supplying the Uzbek military. Despite the rumored death of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan leader Juma Namangani during the anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan, [for background see the Eurasia Insight archives], Karimov is anxious to keep building the Uzbek military's capacity.

Even if the IMU cannot reconstitute, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a radical Islamist party, which advocates the overthrow of Karimov's regime, could help foment anti-government unrest. The Strategic Cooperation pact includes a promise by Americans to "regard with grave concern any external threat" to the Uzbek government. Hizb-ut-Tahrir already causes grave concern both for the Karimov regime and for the US government, American diplomats stressed.

Because of these concerns, some in the US human rights community recognize that in order to pursue specific liberalization measures, or to get notorious cases of persecution reversed, it may be worthwhile to work through the Pentagon. "The US military has a unique channel of communication with the Karimov regime," says one congressional staff member who is deeply involved in promoting democracy in Uzbekistan.

However, the Pentagon is primarily focused on future geopolitical engagement in Uzbekistan, irrespective of the human rights climate. In their meeting, Karimov and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld discussed the future of American bases in Central Asia. The US government's official position is that it does not seek permanent bases in Central Asia. At the same time, officials say they want access to former Soviet facilities for an indefinite period - at least as long as the war on terrorism is continuing. Such a formula is vague enough to keep everyone in the region nervous, but it avoids a direct clash with Russia over regional spheres of influence. In October 2001 Russia requested - and conducted - consultations with the United States over the future of Central Asia. The second round of consultations will take place in Moscow in April.

According to sources present at Karimov's talks with Bush, Powell and Rumsfeld, the Uzbek ruler's main worry - and warning - was about Iranian meddling in Afghanistan. Karimov apparently believes that Tehran will try to undermine stability there by exploiting centuries-old ethnic rivalries, in order to undermine the United States and its allies. If that scenario were to materialize, the United States would need to act as a more solicitous friend to players throughout the region, including Karimov himself. As one American diplomat said, "if you thought politics make strange bedfellows, try war - it makes stranger ones."

Editor’s Note: Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and author of "Russian Imperialism: Development and Crisis" (Praeger/Greenwood, 1998.)