Conservatives will enjoy a dominant majority when the Islamic republic's 7th legislature convenes in late May. At the same time, a majority of Iranians continue to view conservative political leaders unfavorably, concerned that they seek to re-impose strict Islamic protocols. According to some estimates, only about 15 percent of the Iranian electorate actively backs conservative parties. To win the parliamentary election, conservatives relied heavily on decisions by the hardliner-controlled Guardian Council, which disqualified roughly 2,500 parliamentary candidates and effectively hindered the reformists' ability to mount a viable campaign. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Conservatives also benefited from widespread apathy among erstwhile reform supporters.
Tacitly acknowledging that their political survival depends on not alienating the population further, several conservative leaders have already pledged not to roll back the loosening of social restrictions that occurred in recent years. They are also laying the groundwork for a massive consumer-sector spending spree, which they hope will boost their popularity ratings by offering quick-fix remedies for the country's structural economic problems. To buy time for their economic plan to work, many conservatives are also hoping to improve the country's tense relationship with the United States.
Shortly after the parliamentary election, Golamali Haddad-Adel who is related to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and who is viewed as a leading candidate to become the next parliament speaker indicated that a conservative-dominated legislature would keep existing social policy intact. "There will not be a return to the past," he said. Later, on March 6, Haddad-Adel touched upon the issue of women's rights, saying; "For women, it is not against the law if they choose not to wear a hejab [traditional head covering] while they are traveling outside the country."
While these conservatives are promising no radical shifts in the social sphere, they are planning major changes in the economic sector. Observers in Tehran suggest the conservatives are attempting to develop an economic program that fuses Keynesian economic practices with the tightly controlled Chinese model of economic and political development.
Overcoming the country's deep economic problems is widely viewed as a major political challenge for conservatives. Some projections suggest that Iran will have to create up to 1 million jobs per year to keep pace with the country's burgeoning population. At present, the country is creating only about 300,000 jobs per year. The vast majority of the country's population is under age 30.
In an attempt to relieve mounting popular frustration, conservatives will encourage a massive influx of consumer goods. The next legislature is thus expected to give serious consideration to lowering or eliminating tariffs on imports, and the expansion credits to merchants. Concurrently, in an effort to alleviate unemployment, conservatives will promote a massive civic-sector construction boom, including highways, housing projects, parks and shopping malls. Already, the conservative-controlled city council in Tehran is developing a tentative blueprint to remake the cityscape. The overall cost of the government programs could stretch into the billions of dollars.
To pay for the government spending spree, conservatives are prepared to tap into the country's considerable foreign currency reserves. However, in recent weeks they have struggled with their reformist rivals over control of a special fund containing an estimated $10 billion, derived from Iran's windfall oil sales profits. On March 10, conservative leaders cautioned the lame-duck reformist-dominated legislature against taking steps that would deplete the fund. The lame-duck legislature has nevertheless persisted in its efforts to allocate a significant amount of the special fund, which was established in 2000 by President Mohammad Khatami's reformist government. The executive branch is the last bastion of reformist power.
On March 15, the Guardian Council, which, in addition to vetting candidates for political office, also wields veto power over parliamentary legislation, rejected an attempt by reformists to utilize $6.5 billion for reformist-backed construction and development programs, and to pay off some of the country's foreign debt. The next day, however, the Expediency Council, Iran's supreme oversight body, approved a $5 billion allocation to the reformist-controlled government.
Conservatives accuse the reformists of trying to drain the special fund before presidential elections are held in 2005. Conservatives view their ability to control the fund as central to achieving their aim of regaining control over the executive branch in the presidential election.
Even if conservatives are left with sufficient funds to implement their economic agenda, some political observers believe they could become bogged down by infighting. Already there is evidence of tension between conservatives who are believers in the Keynesian methods and hardliners who favor strict adherence to the Chinese authoritarian model. Some influential ultra-conservatives reportedly are concerned that their legitimacy would be damaged if they are seen to embrace a liberal economic position, or endorse a foreign policy that seeks detente with the United States.
The question of promoting a rapprochement with the United States is proving contentious. The majority of conservatives feel that Washington must be engaged in order to prevent any possible US attempt to disrupt their domestic economic plans, or endanger Iranian national security. But extreme rightists, a highly influential constituency within the conservative bloc, have already vowed to oppose any attempt to seek a normalization of relations with the United States.
Editor's note:
Ardeshir Moaveni is a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian politics.
