Georgia Mum on Details of New Abkhazia Proposal

Nearly two weeks after the Russian government announced the unilateral lifting of a trade embargo against the separatist region of Abkhazia, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is trying to outmaneuver Moscow by building international support for an overhaul of the Abkhaz peace process.

On March 18, Saakashvili took both Russia and the United Nations to task for allegedly "failing to fulfill" their obligations in the Georgian-Abkhazian peace process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Speaking to journalists after meeting with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in New York, Saakashvili hinted at a new Georgian initiative to reinvigorate efforts to resolve the 15-year conflict with the breakaway Black Sea region. "We need a total revision of the [peacekeeping] format," he said in remarks broadcast on the Georgian television station Mze.

Saakashvili's call for change follows a series of controversial moves by Moscow in favor of the Abkhaz separatists. On March 6, Russia announced it was walking away from a 1996 Commonwealth of Independent States treaty that placed economic sanctions on Abkhazia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

One week later, the Russian Duma flirted with the possibility of actually recognizing the separatist territory; on March 14 it recommended that the Russian government upgrade both Abkhazia and South Ossetia to a so-called "deferred" status of recognition. A draft statement advising the Kremlin to begin "consultations" on recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states is expected to be discussed on March 21, the Itar-Tass news agency reported.

Saakashvili claimed that Russia's decision to drop sanctions against Abkhazia means that the peacekeeping "operation remains without any legal grounds and is counterproductive." He stated that Georgia's own proposals for a revised peacekeeping format -- not the first time such proposals have been made -- will be presented "early next week."

Apart from the creation of an "independent commission" to facilitate the return of ethnic Georgians to Abkhazia, though, no details about the new proposals have been released. State Minister for Reintegration Issues Temur Iakobashvili could not be reached for comment.

According to Zurab Bendianishvili, an expert on the temporary parliamentary commission on territorial integrity issues, however, "nothing" has been decided yet.

Bendianishvili expressed doubt that any real change to the format is possible. "I don't think, in reality, anything will change because Russia will be categorically against it," he said. "This is more of a political announcement."

Russia has veto power in the UN Security Council, and thus can block any attempt to alter the existing peacekeeping format.

Resolving the "frozen" conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia was an integral part of Saakashvili's recent campaign for reelection. During his campaign, he vowed to facilitate the return of Georgian refugees to Abkhazia in "months, not years." Tension between Tbilisi and Sukhumi has risen in recent weeks, in the aftermath of international recognition of Kosovo. Russia has long threatened that it would recognize Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence, if Western nations acknowledged Kosovo's independence. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Saakashvili's March 18 announcement came just hours after the Abkhaz de-facto government claimed it shot down an unmanned, Israeli-made Georgian reconnaissance plane on March 18. Georgian authorities have denied the reports, insisting that they have not lost any aircraft.

Regional conflict analyst Mamuka Areshidze believes conflict resolution will suffer as long as Moscow feels "insulted" over Western recognition of Kosovo. "The Russian government as a whole is seemingly threatening the West," he said. "Russia is insulted that it could not influence the Kosovo issue. [Now] it is looking for an issue close to its own borders that concerns a Western ally -- Georgia."

Areshidze added that for now it is important to the Duma that they "show" the West they are capable of "taking action."

"They [Russian authorities] are trying -- before Bucharest [NATO summit in April] to resolve the issue in some way," he said, noting that if Georgia receives its Membership Action Plan during the summit, Moscow's leverage will be limited. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

As have other Georgian observers, Areshidze argues that Russia's decision to lift the economic embargo against Abkhazia was a case of diplomatic grandstanding. He noted that, despite the treaty, Russian companies have been investing in the region for years.

While Georgian officials have expressed concern that Moscow will now actively supply military hardware to Abkhaz separatists, Areshidze dismissed those fears, claiming that while Moscow will likely continue what he terms its military "cooperation" with the separatists, it is also not in Russia's interest to flood the conflict zone with weapons, or create any precedent for independence movements in the North Caucasus.

De facto Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh has termed the lifting of the embargo "pleasant news," the separatist-run Apsnypress news agency reported.

Parliamentary expert Bendianishvili believes that Moscow is more interested in leveraging power than actually empowering the separatists in either Abkhazia or South Ossetia to achieve real independence. "Russia will not recognize Abkhazia or South Ossetia," he said. "Russia needs them to influence Georgia and its [Russia's] position in the Caucasus. They do not need an independent Abkhazia or South Ossetia."