States in Central Asia, Caucasus Brace For Iraq Blitz Consequences

Governments in Central Asia and the Caucasus tightened security precautions March 20 after US President George W. Bush ordered the start of a military offensive to oust Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Only two states – Georgia and Uzbekistan – firmly back the Bush administration's war effort. Others are increasingly wary of the conflict's potential consequences. In Tajikistan, a radio commentary characterized the Iraq offensive as a "mistake."

Authorities across Central Asia and the Caucasus say police details are being reinforced around US and British embassies and other diplomatic facilities. In Kyrgyzstan, officials also announced that security measures around the US military air base outside Bishkek are being strengthened. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan announced that it has increased the monitoring of the country's airspace.

Although officials discount the possibility of military operations directly affecting either Central Asia or the Caucasus, the relative proximity of both regions to the theater of military operations has authorities concerned about ancillary problems. Specifically, both Georgia and Kyrgyzstan have expressed concern about undesired population movements sparked by the fighting.

On March 19, Georgian National Security Council Secretary Tedo Japaridze said that Islamic radical fighters currently in Iraq may attempt to flee the US blitz and seek a safe haven in Georgia's unruly Pankisi Gorge, the Prime News agency reported. Over the past year, Tbilisi has struggled to assert its authority over the gorge, which has been utilized by Chechen separatists and hard-line Arab fighters.

In Kyrgyzstan, a top security official, Boris Poluetov, expressed concern about an "uncontrolled influx of citizens from neighboring countries," the Itar-Tass news agency reported. Poluetov added that border controls had been expanded to guard against illegal migration.

Political experts in Azerbaijan are worried about how the US attack against Iraq will affect the public mood. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Observers say many Azeris oppose the use of force against fellow Muslims in Iraq. A few men have even appeared at the Iraqi embassy in Baku seeking to volunteer to go to Iraq and fight American troops.

President Heidar Aliyev's cautious support for Bush administration policies could ultimately foster an increase in domestic discontent, observers fear. "The aggravation of the [Iraq] crisis and its escalation into armed conflict will undoubtedly affect the political and democratic processes in Azerbaijan," political scientist Adil Racabli told the Baku daily Ekspress.

The economic ramifications of the Iraq conflict may also be enormous for both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan – two states that are relying heavily on the development of natural resources to fuel domestic growth. Already, Natiq Aliyev, head of Azerbaijan's state oil company, has warned that the Iraq war would create delays for the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, fighting could push back the development timetable for the Shah Deniz gas field, Azerbaijani television reported.

In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev's administration has voiced concern about a potential medium-term drop in global energy prices. A significant drop in the price of oil and gas could cause a budgetary crisis for the Kazakhstani government. According to a presidential press service statement March 19, Nazarbayev has instructed officials to develop contingency plans to cushion the potential blow to Kazakhstan caused by plummeting energy prices.

In preparing for possible consequences, Central Asian and Caucasus states hold differing views on the merits of military action against Saddam. The strongest Bush administration backers have been Georgia and Uzbekistan. For example, Uzbek television, in a documentary broadcast March 15, compared Saddam Hussein to former Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. "Anyone who knows even a little about the history of the Persian Gulf is aware that Saddam's thirst for power goes beyond Iraq's borders," the program stated.

Economic and social concerns have helped push Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to moderate their support for the Bush administration in recent weeks. All three countries want to avoid alienating the United States. At the same time, all three are wary of Washington's unilateral approach on Iraq.

"A dangerous tendency towards a split and the absence of a common stance on the Iraqi situation have appeared in the world community," said a Kazakhstani Foreign Ministry statement issued March 18. "Kazakhstan adheres to the principled position of support for the United Nations, and stands for resolving key international problems only within the framework of that organization."

Turkmenistan, which casts itself as a neutral state, has largely refrained from commenting on the Iraq crisis. To date, Tajikistan is the sole Central Asian state to directly criticize the Bush administration, calling the attack against Iraq a "failure in diplomacy." A commentary broadcast on state-controlled Tajik radio after American forces had started to bomb Baghdad said: "There is no evidence of the Iraqi leader's cooperation with international terrorists."

The commentary went on to attack Bush, suggesting that personal considerations were driving White House policy. "Victory over Saddam Hussein will strengthen his [Bush's] position in the political arena and create conditions for him to win a second presidential term."

Political analysts note that the alignment of Central Asian and Caucasus states on the Iraq issue is related to geopolitical conditions in both regions. Both Georgia and Uzbekistan, for instance, are struggling to overcome economic dysfunction. Both also have a prickly relationship with Russia, which has opposed the use of force against Iraq, and which has increasingly sought to reassert its economic and political influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The combination of these factors thus encourages Tbilisi and Tashkent to back Washington in the hopes that their support will be rewarded with increased levels of American aid.

The other states in the region all have either much closer relationships with Russia, or, like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, stand to suffer economically from the fighting in Iraq. Hence, their caution concerning the Iraq offensive appears to be growing.