Public Confidence on the Upswing in Georgia - Poll

A recent public opinion survey in the south Caucasus state of Georgia, published by the US-based International Republican Institute, shows a substantial rise in support for President Mikheil Saakashvili's administration.

The report showed that 48 percent of Georgians now believe the country is moving in the right direction, as opposed to 41 percent who disapprove of the country's political course, with 11 percent having no opinion. That marks a substantial increase in public optimism over the previous poll, conducted in April 2006, when only 39 percent expressed confidence in government policy and an outright majority, 51 percent, voiced concern about the present and future. A 51 percent majority expressed satisfaction in the 2007 poll with the pace of democratization.

Despite the rebound, the 2007 results showed that public confidence had yet to climb all the way back to 2004 and early 2005 levels, when 65 percent of the population approved of the country's political direction. Saakashvili's administration rose to power amid the Rose Revolution in late 2003 and enjoyed lengthy political honeymoon, helping to account for the comparatively high level of public approval in those initial polls.

In the economic sphere, the 2007 survey indicated that Georgians feel slightly more confident about their quality of life. In all, 37 percent of the 1,500 people questioned said the Georgian economy had improved over the past three months, while 32 percent believed conditions had grown worse, 27 percent said things had remained the same and 3 percent had no opinion. In the 2006 poll, 30 percent saw the economy as improving and 36 percent said conditions were deteriorating.

Overall, 73 percent of Georgians in 2007 said they were optimistic about the future, up from 68 percent in 2006. The increase in optimism is potentially significant, given that the Georgian economy suffered a shock in 2006 due to the imposition of Russian trade sanctions, which closed off Georgia's largest export market for wine and other commodities. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ongoing tension with Russia was reflected in several areas of the poll. More than 80 percent of respondents in 2007 supported the notion of Georgia joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and 84 percent supported an eventual European Union membership bid. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. If a referendum were held in Georgia on membership in the Moscow-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States, 60 percent of Georgians in the 2007 poll indicated that they were probably vote to withdraw from the group. In 2006, 53 percent said they would support Georgia's withdrawal. Almost three out of every four Georgia's said that they viewed Russia as a threat in 2007.

A majority of Georgians expressed support in 2007 for the Saakashvili administration's handling of the separatist conflicts involving Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In addition, 59 percent expressed the belief that local elections held last October were "free-and-fair."

The polling results in 2007 also suggested that democratization in Georgia continues to face serious challenges. The data indicated that the level of political awareness for most Georgians remains low – 42 percent, for example, said they had little interest in politics, up from 38 percent in 2006.

The Saakashvili administration also continues to face daunting obstacles in several areas, including the effort to curb corruption and improve confidence in the judicial system. Popular distrust of Georgian justice was reflected in the fact that 78 percent of those polled said they were dissatisfied with the verdict in the trial concerning the 2006 murder Sandro Girgvliani. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In general, 58 percent of Georgians maintained that the government only partially respects the human rights of citizens.

The polling was conducted by International Republican Institute (IRI), with the assistance of The Gallup Organization and Baltic Surveys Ltd. The US Agency for International Development provided funding. The survey, released in February, sought to assist local political parties conduct more effective political campaigns and help the government identify important areas of policy reform.

While some analysts say the results of February's poll did provide a general picture of the public's view, several experts voiced concerns about the poll's methodology, thus raising questions about the accuracy of the data.

"It's not a poll, it's a power point presentation," says Hans Gutbrod, program director of Caucasus Research Resource Center, an organization that also conducts surveys for its database center. "The problem is we don't know anything about the survey; how it was conducted, what were the questions, how do they select the people?"

Other policy experts suggested that the way questions were phrased could significantly influence the results. "Such surveys are unreliable," said Giorgi Tarkan-Mouravi, co-director of the Institute of Policy Studies in Tbilisi. For example, one survey question asks: "In your opinion, is Georgia a tolerant society or not?" To which 56 percent responded "yes." But Tarkan-Mouravi said the definition of "tolerant" was unclear. "The word is difficult to translate into Georgian. It could mean I am tolerant of my neighbor, or a number of other things. What does it mean in this survey?" Tarkan-Mouravi said.

Sociologist Guram Swanidze suggested such surveys could be manipulated for political purposes, pointing out that different parties conduct various surveys and come up with diverse answers. Polls should not become a "political instrument," Swanidze said.

IRI Georgia Director Mark Lenzi vigorously defended the survey's integrity, saying that it was conducted systematically by knocking on doors of 1,500 household voters throughout Georgia. "It wasn't like we just went to a park and asked random people questions," Lenzi stated. The IRI official added that the survey represented an accurate picture of public opinion, pointing out that the actual survey questions and other information about methodology were readily available upon request.