The Pakistani military's ongoing offensive in tribal areas near the country's border with Afghanistan has turned up evidence that a Central Asian militant group, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, remains active. Pakistani generals also indicate that government troops may have narrowly missed capturing Tahir Yuldashev, the IMU's leading commander.
The Pakistani security sweep has focused on South Waziristan, near the Afghan border. On March 20, reports circulated that a "high-value target" -- widely reported at the time to be al Qaeda's No. 2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahri was surrounded. On March 22, however, the target was reported to have evaded capture, apparently escaping from the village of Kaloosha via a tunnel. In addition, the target likely made his escape at the outset of the Pakistani campaign, before government forces could fully seal the area.
Now, officials believe that al-Zawahri, one of the masterminds behind the September 11 terrorist attack, was likely not the one in Kaloosha. Instead, consensus is building that the target was Yuldashev, the IMU's political leader. Though the target evaded capture, Pakistani military leaders suggest he may be wounded. Referring to intercepts of Islamic radical communications, Pakistani Army Brig. Gen. Mehmood Shah, who is in charge of security for South Waziristan, appeared to confirm the presence of a high-level IMU leader in the area. Shah specifically cited the transcript of an intercepted conversation about a wounded militant who was seeking to get out of the area and would require "four men to carry him and 10 or 11 people to protect him."
The IMU's combat capabilities were widely believed to have been smashed during the US-led anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan, where the Central Asian militant group maintained a training base. The IMU's military leader, Juma Namangani, was reportedly killed during the US blitz on Afghanistan, tough concrete evidence of his death has been lacking. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The fact that the IMU has been largely silent in recent years lent credence to the belief that it had fallen apart.
A building body of evidence, however, indicates that there is a considerable IMU presence in Pakistan. According to a Pakistani assessment, the roughly 500 or so militants in Kaloosha are mostly Uzbeks and Chechens. The remainder of the fighters in the area are thought to be local tribesmen.
The initial report pointing to the presence of foreign militants came from Lt. Gen. Safdar Hussain, the Pakistani commander of the counterinsurgency operation. According to Hussain, military communications experts have intercepted radio transmissions in both Chechen and Uzbek, with Arabic words peppered throughout conversations. According to Central Asian analyst Arkady Dubnov, Chechen and Uzbek militants often use Arabic to communicate, having learned it during training with Arabic-speaking al Qaeda instructors in Afghan training camps during the Taliban era. Though the Soviet Union collapsed just under 13 years ago, many young Uzbeks, especially those from rural areas, now lack the ability to converse in Russian. Thus, Russian cannot serve as a lingua franca for Chechens and Uzbeks.
According to Pakistani military officials, dozens of militants have been killed during the recent the security sweep and dozens more have been captured. Pakistani troops have met stiff resistance, Hussain confirmed. "They are extremely professional fighters," the general told reporters on March 21.
The IMU launched insurgent strikes into the Central Asian nations of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in 1999-2000 with the avowed aim of toppling Uzbek leader Islam Karimov and establishing a new Islamic order in the country. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. During this time, Yuldashev and Namangani were believed to have built close ties with al Qaeda and the radical Islamic Taliban movement, which governed much of Afghanistan until being driven from power by the US anti-terrorism campaign in late 2001. Since then, it appears that the IMU has been quietly rebuilding its organization in the tribal areas of Pakistan.
Confirmation that the IMU has restored its combat capabilities would deliver a hard political blow to Uzbek leader Islam Karimov, who at home has attempted to stifle individual rights, including freedom of religious expression, in an effort to snuff out the Islamic radical security threat. Reports that Yuldashev and his followers remain active could invigorate clandestine Islamic radical activities inside Uzbekistan, making it easier for the IMU to recruit new members.
Already, Uzbek authorities are struggling to contain another radical group, Hizb-ut-Tahrir. Despite the unrelenting crackdown in Uzbekistan, Hizb, a non-violent group that seeks to oust Karimov and establish an Islamic caliphate in Central Asia, has steadily expanded its membership in recent years, while at the same time stepping up its anti-government agitation. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The news coming out of Pakistan has clearly gotten Karimov's attention. At a March 23 news conference, the Uzbek leader called on Pakistan to hand over any Uzbek citizen taken prisoner during the South Waziristan security sweep. "If they [Uzbeks] are detained, they should be handed over to Uzbek judicial powers. This is an international norm and we hope that Pakistan will treat our demands with understanding," the Tribune-uz web site quoted Karimov as saying.
The Uzbek president also pointedly sought to deflate Yuldashev's reputation. "He [Yuldashev] is almost dead, if not physically, then morally," Karimov claimed. "He has already exhausted all of his potential."
On March 1, a report in the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta alleged that the IMU operatives were active in The Afghan capital, Kabul, as well as in Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. Funding for IMU activities was being provided by "Arab sources," the newspaper report claimed, without providing details. It went on to quote a self-described former militant a man identifying himself as Uigun Saidov, and saying that he left the radical movement in late 2003 because he wanted to return to Uzbekistan -- as saying the IMU had received assistance from anti-Western elements within Pakistan's security apparatus. Saidov also claimed that IMU fighters had participated in recent Islamic radical raids into Afghanistan, and had fought in Kashmir.
Editor's note:
Mike Redman is a security analyst based in London.
