EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Kochorian Confident and Firm Heading into Key West Karabakh Meeting

EURASIA INSIGHT

KOCHORIAN CONFIDENT AND FIRM HEADING INTO KEY WEST KARABAKH MEETING

Haroutiun Khachatrian 3/29/01

Armenian President Robert Kocharian, undaunted by Azerbaijani threats to resume armed conflict and bolstered by unified domestic public opinion, is maintaining a firm stance in advance of the upcoming round of Nargorno-Karabakh peace talks, to be held in Key West, Florida. Expectations in Armenia are low that the existing deadlock in negotiations on Karabakh’s future status can be broken.

The Key West meeting is slated to begin April 3, when Kocharian and Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev will be joined by US Secretary of State Colin Powell in the search for a negotiated solution. Kocharian has stated that direct bilateral talks are unlikely to produce a settlement. The divergent views of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders are such that international mediators, specifically the OSCE Minsk Group, should take the lead in the search for a compromise acceptable to all parties, the Armenian president said during a meeting with university students on March 21.

At that same student meeting, Kocharian stressed that Armenia’s negotiating stance remains unchanged, saying that Yerevan would oppose any arrangement that leaves Karabakh under Azerbaijan’s jurisdiction. He said flatly that Azerbaijan’s proposal to grant broad self-governing powers to Karabakh was unacceptable, adding that Armenia would insist on securing a direct territorial link to Karabakh, as well as international security guarantees for the enclave.

In maintaining a firm line, Kocharian enjoys the near universal support of the Armenian political establishment. In the days leading up to the Key West meeting, the president met with leaders of most major political parties -- including the Yerkrapah Union of War Veterans and Dashnaktsutiun, or Armenian Revolutionary Party � to reaffirm the unified position of Armenia on the Karabakh issue.

Kocharian and other government officials have been largely dismissive of Azerbaijani threats to resume military operations if negotiations fail to achieve a breakthrough soon. In a speech to the nation on March 21, Aliyev warned that a resumption of the war could not be excluded. In addition, Azerbaijani officials have publicly speculated that a military alliance with Turkey would enhance Baku’s ability to wage and win a renewed war with Armenia.

In his meeting with students, Kocharian cautioned Azerbaijan, saying the Armenian military was prepared for any contingency, having strengthened its defensive positions along the border since the 1994 Karabakh ceasefire. "The one who starts a war, will be the one who is defeated," Kocharian said. Dashnaktsutiun leaders portrayed the Azerbaijani statements on the resumption of hostilities to be an indicator of weakness in negotiations, while at the same time voicing concern about the possibility of Turkey becoming a factor in the Karabakh peace process.

Meanwhile, some Armenian political observers express doubts about whether the OSCE Minsk Group is capable of mediating a compromise at the present time, citing the growing tension in US-Russian relations. A few Armenian officials also express concern that Russia has yet to decide whether a Karabakh settlement is in Moscow’s best interests. Resolution of the Karabakh conflict would remove a major obstacle to development of the Caspian Basin’s oil and gas reserves. It could also possibly enhance the prospects for construction of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which is viewed as the chief rival to Russian oil and gas export routes via Novorossisk.

According to Ashot Manucharian, the leader of the Socialist Union of Armenia, if Russia decides that a Karabakh settlement does not serve its interests, Moscow may be tempted to destabilize the region, with unpredictable consequences.

Editor�s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.

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