Kyrgyzstan: Prime Minister Replaced Amid More Political Maneuvering

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Azim Isabekov on March 29, naming opposition member Almazbek Atambayev to replace him. The move is the latest in a series of attempts by Bakiyev to take the wind out of opposition sails, as he faces a fresh round of anti-government protests in April.

Isabekov's firing came a day after he proposed that several key members of the Bakiyev team be dismissed to make room for opposition leaders in a power-sharing cabinet. But Isabekov himself became a casualty of the president's newest political maneuver.

Bakiyev portrayed Atambayev's nomination as a bid for stability. "I hope that this step, along with other measures being taken by me and many political forces, including on the constitutional process, will bring good results and bring an end to the escalation of tension in society," the presidential press service quoted Bakiyev as saying.

The nomination of Atambayev, until recently a key figure in the For Reforms opposition coalition, appeared to only deepen a split between the radical and moderate wings of the anti-Bakiyev forces. Opposition unity had already been fractured by debate over how to react to Bakiyev's recent political moves, including a vow to revisit controversial constitutional changes and an agreement to transform state television and radio into a public service broadcaster.

The newly organized United Front for a Decent Future for Kyrgyzstan, led by former Prime Minister Feliks Kulov, remains adamant that protests calling for the president's resignation will go ahead as planned April 9. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The United Front claims that Bakiyev's refusal to reappoint Kulov to the premiership early this year broke a pact made with the electorate in 2005, when the pair formed a national unity ticket to replace ousted president Askar Akayev. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Emil Aliyev, deputy chairman of Kulov's Ar-Namys party and a United Front spokesperson, told EurasiaNet that Atambayev's appointment would do nothing to change the Front's strategy. "We will protest no matter what, because authorities will only enter into dialog if we show them our strength," he said.

For Reforms -- which prior to the formation of the United Front was the most prominent opposition movement -- struggled for much of March to develop an action plan. Bitter internal debates ultimately caused the movement to splinter, and several prominent members defected to the United Front camp. Many of the remaining leaders of For Reforms, including Atambayev, announced on March 28 that they too were leaving to form yet another new opposition grouping, For a United Kyrgyzstan.

"We, no less than our [former] colleagues, do not trust or believe the authorities," the new group said in a statement the same day. "But in the current situation, in our view, a course of confrontation threatens our national interests."

Aliyev, the United Front representative, called United Kyrgyzstan a false opposition "deliberately set up by the president." He went on to characterize Bakiyev's nomination of Atambayev as premier, along with the expected formation of a coalition government as cynical attempts to "deceive the public that the president is holding a dialog with the opposition."

Late on March 29, the remaining For Reforms members joined the United Front in rejecting cooperation with Atambayev's new administration. Individual members of Atambayev's own United Kyrgyzstan movement expressed support for the new prime minister-designate. The Kyrgyz parliament was expected to hold a vote to confirm Atambayev no later than the first week of April.

Given the threat posed by the United Front, Bakiyev's "current position is very weak," said Tamerlan Ibraimov of Bishkek's Center for Political and Legal Studies. "He is trying to split the opposition on the one hand, while on the other he is seeking some compromises."

Valentin Bogatyrev, Director of the Bishkek think tank Perspectiva, agreed, saying that the rapidly multiplying branches of the opposition would react differently to the president's divide-and-rule strategy. Over the short term, Bogatyrev said, the more radical elements of the opposition are expected to continue to pursue Bakiyev's immediate resignation. "There is a crisis of faith in the president, and they understand that there is a need to continue to put pressure on him," he added.

Ibraimov predicted substantial numbers would attend the April protests despite Bakiyev's maneuvering. He added that another change of government would not necessarily move Kyrgyzstan further along the path of reform. "I think a more favorable variant would be if they [first] carried out constitutional reform, and only afterwards had special elections for president and parliament," he said. "If Bakiyev's name is simply changed to Kulov, there is no guarantee that Kulov will carry out crucial reforms."