EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Armenia: PM's Death Has Minimal Impact on Parliamentary Election Campaign

EURASIA INSIGHT

ARMENIA: PM’S DEATH HAS MINIMAL IMPACT ON PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION CAMPAIGN
Emil Danielyan 3/30/07

As Armenians come to grips with the sudden death of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, there are growing indications that his passing will not have a major impact on parliamentary elections scheduled for May 12.

Past experience suggests that that outcome will be decided not so much by the electorate, but by actions taken by the country’s two most powerful men: President Robert Kocharian and Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian. Throughout his nearly seven-year premiership, the 55-year-old Markarian never seriously challenged their grip on power, despite earning acclaim for his unassuming demeanor, conciliatory stance toward the opposition, and openness to independent media.

"The prime minister never played a decisive role in Armenian politics, and key decisions were mainly made by Kocharian and Sarkisian," Aghasi Yenokian, a seasoned political analyst, told EurasiaNet. "The impact of his death on the election results will therefore be very small." Some analysts says Markarian, who at the time of his death also served as chairman of the governing Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), was widely expected to resign following the upcoming polls.

Sarkisian’s brother Levon, a career diplomat, appeared to confirm that Markarian’s influence was limited. Speaking with journalists during Markarian’s state funeral March 28, Levon Sarkisian said that the former prime minister’s death "won’t have a great impact [on political processes] because, thank God, we have been an independent state with functioning mechanisms for 15 years."

Serzh Sarkisian is now tipped to be appointed prime minister by Kocharian. Media reports citing government sources have said the appointment will be announced in the coming days. Kocharian’s office and leaders of his loyal majority in parliament, who held urgent consultations on the matter on March 26, have not officially confirmed this yet. Majority leaders have said only that the RPA will continue to control the post of prime minister at least until the parliamentary elections. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Sarkisian was named the RPA’s acting chairman earlier this week. Nominally, he was the number two figure in the party hierarchy prior to Markarian’s death. But Sarkisian was widely considered the party’s de facto leader even before the prime minister’s fatal heart attack. Commentators pointed to the fact that the RPA’s recently publicized electoral list is dominated by Sarkisian’s wealthy loyalists, most of whom joined Armenia’s largest "party of power" together with the powerful defense minister last July.

That development marked the start of Sarkisian’s apparent preparations for the presidential election due early in 2008. He is expected to heavily rely on the RPA’s control of most central and local government bodies, extensive patronage networks, and a strong presence on election commissions. The use of "administrative resources" proved decisive in the party’s victory in the 2003 parliamentary elections, which were marred by reports of widespread fraud. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Patronage power and other forms of influence remain the RPA’s trump cards ahead of the forthcoming parliamentary voting, which experts say will play a determining role in the outcome of the 2008 presidential election.

The massive outpouring of sympathy expressed by ordinary Armenians for the late premier -- thousands attended his funeral -- showed that Markarian enjoyed a level of popular support that Sarkisian and other top Republicans do not necessarily have. "Voters will now associate the RPA with Serzh Sarkisian, rather than Andranik Markarian," Hovannes Galajian, a veteran columnist, commented in his newspaper Iskakan Iravunk.

This, according to some observers, could damage the party’s popularity, prompting it to rely on its administrative resources to ensure the desired result in the May 12 balloting. "The number of the party’s sincere supporters will shrink," predicted Aram Abrahamian, editor of the Aravot daily. "There will mainly remain employees of government agencies whose corrupt bosses depend on authorities, and force [subordinates] to vote and even falsify elections in favor of the Republicans."

"The RPA will have to resort to much more vote rigging than was planned," agreed Hayk, another paper that is often critical of the government.

Widespread vote-rigging would increase the likelihood of post-election unrest in Armenia. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Markarian played a major role in easing bitter standoffs between the government and the opposition in the past. He was among the few top members of the government camp who seemed reluctant to attack opposition leaders, and who privately communicated with even the bitterest foes of the Kocharian-Sarkisian team. This explains why virtually all prominent opposition members lavished praise on Markarian in the days following his March 25 death from heart failure. As opposition lawmaker Stepan Zakarian put it, "Nobody in Armenia hated him. Both the opposition and pro-government forces maintained good relationships with the prime minister."

Aram Sarkisian (no relation to the defense minister), the leader of the most radical opposition party, Republic, believes that dialogue between the government and the opposition will suffer due to Markarian’s absence. "Unfortunately, there are very few people in the government pyramid who have humane skills such [as] the ability to listen and to forgive," he told RFE/RL.

A lot depends on how Kocharian will behave in this situation. He is believed to be planning to hand over power to Sarkisian and remain in government in some capacity after completing his second and final term in office in less than a year from now. To that end, Kocharian is reportedly sponsoring another election frontrunner, the populist Prosperous Armenia Party of businessman Gagik Tsarukian, both as his new support base and as a counterweight to the RPA. The Armenian press has for months been speculating about a possible electoral clash between the two political groups. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

But analyst Yenokian is among those who see little prospect for such confrontation. "Everything continues to be decided by Kocharian and, to a lesser extent, Sarkisian, and a serious conflict between these two individuals is, therefore, extremely unlikely," he said.

Editor�s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.

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