Turkey: Governing AKP Party Wins Local Voting, but Suffers Political Defeat

During the run-up to the municipal voting, Erdogan had said that his party, known in Turkey as the AKP, expected to match its 47 percent share that it received in 2007's parliamentary elections. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Retaining such a high level of support would have been interpreted by AKP leaders as a mandate for pressing ahead with the party's program, which has sought in recent years to weaken many of the institutions responsible for enforcing the state's staunchly secular identity. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Critics have criticized the AKP's approach as polarizing. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Erdogan and other AKP leaders thought their party could perform well, in spite of the global fiscal crisis, which has punished Turkey's economy. But this turned out not to be the case. The local elections' preliminary results are providing the AKP with a rude surprise. Its roughly 39 percent share of the municipal vote marks a significantly lower level of support than that which it enjoyed in 2007. A variety of factors contributed to the AKP's troubles at the ballot box, including the economic crisis, widespread fraud and corruption allegations against party members, aggressive polarizing political statements made by the party leadership and the slow movement towards EU membership. Another factor would seem to be the lack of enthusiasm among many Turks for the AKP's efforts to move away from Ataturk's legacy and to blur the line somewhat between mosque and state.

In 2007, AKP party offices were the scenes of much rejoicing as parliamentary election results came in. But on the night of March 29, a somber mood hovered over those same offices. When Erdogan appeared on television, he accepted that the results constituted a stunning defeat for the AKP. "We will of course listen to this message and study the results and make necessary adjustments," Erdogan said. "We think that it's crucial to learn lessons from success and failure in order to improve the quality of politics. We will also assess the March 29 local elections from this perspective."

The big winners in March 29 voting were the two main rivals of the AKP -- the staunchly secular Republican People's Party (CHP) with just over 23 percent of the vote, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), with about a 16 percent share. The Kurdish DTP Party also made headway, gaining about a 5.5 percent of the ballots. As a result, the DTP extended its influence in many of southeastern Turkey's towns. In another significant aspect to the voting, the Islamist SF Party, which is more conservative in its religious policies than is the AKP, doubled its support over past elections and registered a 4.7 percent share on March 29. Thus, the AKP would seem to be coming under pressure from all sides.

Prior to the election the AKP devoted considerable resources to gaining ground in the CHP stronghold of Izmir, as well as in Diyarbakir, where the DTP is a major force. But in both cities, the AKP actually lost ground. Epitomizing the AKP's poor performance, it slipped badly in some key areas of the Turkish heartland, especially in Antalya. The AKP's performance in Adana was also worrisome.

Some commentators suggested the AKP was spared an even more stinging electoral rebuke only because its rivals are relatively disorganized and lack a clearly articulated alternative vision for running the country. "The luck of the AKP leadership lies in the lack of an opposition that, unfortunately, is excited and determined to take power," analyst Oktay Eksi wrote in the Hurriyet newspaper. "This result [in the municipal elections] can only be explained by the AKP's mistakes and factors beyond its control, instead of success of the opposition."

Other commentators are speculating that the AKP may announce an early general election; fearful of worsening economic conditions and a continued drop in popular support prior to the scheduled 2012 elections, the AKP may feel moving up the election would offer the party the best chance of holding on to power.

"These results mean that Turkey could face the possibility of dividing into political camps. This could have positive as well as negative impacts," commented Erdal Safak, the editor-in-chief of the Sabah daily. "On the positive side, we can mention that seeking political consensus during the constitutional amendment preparations, which is likely to come up on the agenda soon, is now more important and even inevitable. The negative impacts will focus on the southeast. The success of DTP places it in an important position in a dialogue processes aimed at resolving the Kurdish issue."