NATO Summit to Grapple with Afghanistan, Mull Membership for Georgia, Ukraine

US President George W. Bush departed Washington on March 31 on what promises to be a challenging diplomatic trip. The focal point of the journey is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Bucharest, where he will seek to convince skeptical allies on the need for a troop buildup in Afghanistan and on the value of offering NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine. Bush is also due to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin for discussions on Eurasian security.

Over the past year, the radical Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan has gained new momentum, and it has reached the point where some experts believe the country's reconstruction/democratization process is imperiled. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Meeting with foreign journalists in Washington on March 26, Bush discussed the stakes for NATO in Afghanistan, and urged alliance members to increase their commitment to Afghanistan's stabilization.

"I believe we'll have a successful summit," Bush said, referring to the April 2-4 gathering in the Romanian capital. "The definition of success is to make sure NATO stays relevant, and that we work in a collaborative fashion to deal with the threats of the 21st century and the opportunities of the 21st century.

"There's no better opportunity to deal with the threats of terror than in Afghanistan," Bush continued. "So part of the mission -- part of our collective mission in Romania for the NATO meeting is to encourage people to take our obligations seriously. And the United States, to that end, will make it clear that we do take our obligations seriously. We've committed [3,200 additional] Marines."

While it would appear that Bush is most dissatisfied with Germany's stance on Afghanistan, Bush said in an interview with the German newspaper Die Welt that he would not push to have Berlin send more troops to Kabul. "I want decisions that our partners can live with," Bush said in the interview. "Naturally I can see that some countries aren't in a position right now to take on certain obligations."

During the Washington meeting with foreign journalists, Bush made a strong case for Georgia and Ukraine to receive a NATO membership action plan, or MAP, which would provide specific guidelines for membership. While the United States is a strong supporter of Georgia and Ukraine receiving MAPs at the Bucharest summit, many European members of the alliance oppose such action, including Germany, France, Span and Italy.

It is uncertain whether United States, which is bogged down in Iraq, and burdened with numerous other strategic issues, has the political capital necessary to convince its reluctant partners on the merits of offering MAPs to Tbilisi and Kyiv. Behind-the-scenes maneuvering may continue right up to the moment MAP decisions need to be made in Bucharest. Pro-MAP parties have engaged in an intensive lobbying effort. Recently admitted NATO members, including the Baltic States, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, as well as Canada, have sent a letter to NATO headquarters in Brussels in support of Georgia and Ukraine. In addition, the newspaper Financial Times Deutschland reported that Bush made a personal phone call to German Chancellor Angela Merkel trying to swing the German government's opinion.

"It is not over yet", says Levan Dutschidze, the Georgian Ambassador to Germany, especially given "the experience with the Baltic States, where the decision on their membership was made a day before or [during] the summit." He is having daily consultations with his German colleagues to show them that "Georgia is ready for the next step. We have done our homework; we have done more and better than was asked of us."

Officially Berlin cites problems within both countries as the reason for its unsupportive position: in Ukraine, a majority of the population does not support NATO membership; meanwhile in Georgia, the democratic credentials of President Mikheil Saakashvili's government have taken a beating amid prolonged political turmoil in Tbilisi. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Despite their differences on many issues, both Saakashvili and his political opponents have strong desires for Georgia to gain a MAP during the NATO conclave in Bucharest. David Usupashvili, leader of the opposition Republican Party, argued that Georgia's domestic political problems should not be sufficient grounds for stalling on a MAP offer. He believes that MAP is not just granted to one government, but to the entire country, where 77 percent of Georgians voted in favor of NATO membership, according to a plebiscite held last January.

At a meeting with German military commanders on March 1, Merkel, the German chancellor, noted that countries "entangled in regional and internal conflicts" cannot join NATO, German media outlets reported. Given Georgia's unsettled disputes with its separatist-minded entities -- Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- Merkel, in effect, indicated that German support for Georgia's MAP aspirations was out of the question.

Georgian diplomats, however, aren't taking