Eurasia Insight:
SECURITY OFFICIALS STRIVE TO EASE CAUCASUS TENSION
Sergei Blagov: 4/01/02

Conciliatory statements made by Georgian and Russian officials following a Caucasus security summit are raising conflict prevention hopes in the region. It appears that a quid pro quo is taking shape in which Russia eases the political pressure it has exerted on Georgia, and in return Tbilisi adheres more to Moscow's regional strategic line.

The Caucasus Four meeting of top national security officials from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia concluded March 30 in the Russian resort city of Sochi. Participants discussed a variety of long-standing security dilemmas, including the ongoing search for a Nagorno-Karabakh political settlement. But the main focus of the meeting was clearly on preventing the deterioration of Georgian-Russian relations from re-igniting conflict in the separatist-minded region of Abkhazia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed concern at the March 30 meeting that tensions could produce conflict, specifically mentioning "possible military actions along the Georgia-Abkhaz border close to Russia's frontier." He stressed that compromise was necessary to solve strategic differences and to allow the countries to realize their economic trade potential. "We must break the vicious circle," Putin declared.

A joint statement adopted at the close of the meeting advocated a collective approach "in combating new challenges," including terrorism, weapons and narcotics trafficking and illegal migration.

Putin followed up on his conciliatory rhetoric by appointing First Deputy Foreign Minister Valery Loshchinin as Russia's special envoy on Abkhazia. And in a move sure to reassure Georgia, the Russian president also backed a UN political blueprint for Abkhazia that reportedly would leave the renegade region within Georgia's territorial jurisdiction. At the same time, Putin hinted that there might be consequences for Georgia if it did not reciprocate. "We will look after refugees in that region the best we can, but we also cannot be deaf to the plight of 50,000 citizens of Russia [in Abkhazia]," Putin said.

On April 1, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze hailed Putin's actions and emphasized that Georgian-Russian tension should not be "overdramatized."

In recent weeks, officials in Tbilisi and Moscow have engaged in mutual recrimination over the deteriorating security situation in Georgia. On March 20, for example, the Georgian parliament tentatively approved a statement, denouncing "the preparation of Russia's aggression" against Georgia. MPs accused Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia of "illegal action." According to Interfax, the statement also blamed Russia of provoking instability in Georgia.

The Georgian parliamentary resolution followed a March 28 statement by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov in which he hinted that tensions in Abkhazia, as well as US military presence in Georgia, could affect the timeframe of the Russian military withdrawal from Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Georgian parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze described Ivanov's comments as detrimental to "Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

In a yet another sign of growing volatility, on March 27 a series of terrorist attacks took place in Abkhazia, leaving one civilian dead and 15 wounded. [See related EurasiaNet story]. The Foreign Ministry of break-away Abkhazia accused Tbilisi of sponsoring "state terrorism." Georgia's State Security Ministry denied any involvement. Meanwhile, Moscow accused Georgia of aiding militants who are fighting Abkhaz separatists and of aiding Chechen rebels.

Putin's clear commitment to compromise could prove a turning point for Georgia's stabilization hopes, Shevardnadze suggested.

"[Putin] confirmed … that Russia is loyal to its international commitments, and that documents endorsed by the UN Security Council should become the key to the solution of the Abkhaz problem," Shevardnadze said in a weekly radio interview. "You may recall that Russia had been impeding the adoption of these documents in the UN Security Council for about a year and a half."

Shevardnadze also appealed to Abkhaz leaders to negotiate a political solution. "There is no other way except compromise," he said.

Whether or not the Georgian-Russian rapprochement takes root is likely to rest heavily on how Georgian-US relations develop. According to Moscow political observers, Russia is intent on avoiding a "Central Asia" scenario, in which the United States shunts Russia to the side of the geopolitical stage. Russia's Kommersant daily commented that Moscow, following the "surrender" of Central Asia to the United States, is prepared to vigorously defend its interests in the Caucasus.

In attempting to retain Russian influence in Georgia, Putin is clearly willing to try persuasion, rather than coercion - at least for the time being. At the same time, Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo made it clear at the Caucasus Four summit that Moscow does not welcome a potential rise in US strategic influence in the Caucasus. Russian officials are especially hostile to US involvement in regional anti-terrorist operations. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Any external interference can more likely harm, rather than promote stabilization of the situation," Rushailo said. While Russia seems to be staking out a tough position on the Caucasus' strategic political alignment, Rushailo and other Russian officials seem amenable to a greater US economic and humanitarian role in the region.

At the Caucasus Four summit, Tedo Japaridze, Tbilisi's National Security Council secretary expressed understanding for Russia's position, describing the pending deployment of US military advisors in Georgia as "a painful and delicate issue for Russia." In an interview with the Interfax news agency, Japaridze admitted that Georgia "should have probably informed its Russian colleagues more thoroughly about its cooperation with the United States in the sphere of the fight against terrorism."

Some media outlets reported that Georgia intended to revise its military cooperation plans with the United States. On March 31, however, Georgian Foreign Minister Irakli Menagarishvili denied the reports, adding that the first group of American military advisors was expected to arrive in mid-April. Japaridze earlier repeated Georgian government assertions that US troops would not take an active role in any anti-terrorism operation on Georgian soil. He also said that US-trained units would not be deployed against Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

Editor’s Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.