A Tense Armenia Gears Up for Another Election

Armenia continues to grapple with the political fallout from President Robert Kocharian's hotly disputed reelection in March. But increasingly, Armenia's political elite is focusing on the next struggle: parliamentary elections that are scheduled for May 25.

The Central Election Commission (CEC), which is dominated by Kocharian appointees, has announced that the official campaign period for the parliamentary vote will last from April 21-May 23. However, the political maneuvering is already well underway.

The Armenian opposition, largely grouped around defeated presidential candidate Stepan Demirchian, hopes to harness widespread voter outrage over ballot-rigging and other electoral misdeeds allegedly committed by Kocharian supporters during the two rounds of presidential voting. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Opposition leaders are now trying to formulate a strategy to wrest control of the parliament from pro-Kocharian political forces. The opposition continues to seek Kocharian's ouster, and now views control of parliament as a key to realizing that goal.

Armenia's 131-member legislature, the National Assembly, is far less powerful than the head of state. Nevertheless, opposition control of the legislature could pose a considerable threat to Kocharian's hold on power. For example, an opposition-controlled legislature could potentially attempt to impeach the president. The parliament has the ability to vote no confidence in the government.

Kocharian's administration is well aware of this reality. Thus, opposition supporters say, it is possible that the parliamentary vote could witness a repeat of the voting irregularities that marred the presidential election. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The presidential poll controversy has raised questions about the legitimacy of Kocharian's reelection.

Strong criticism by the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, pointedly endorsed by the United States, has strained Armenia's relations with the West. However, the international condemnation is unlikely to lead to economic or political sanctions against Kocharian's administration.

Twenty-four political parties and electoral blocs have filed for registration with the CEC to contest 75 parliament seats under the system of proportional representation. The 56 other seats will be distributed in single-mandate constituencies under the first-past-the-post electoral system. More than 500 individual candidates, many of them not affiliated with any political group, are vying for them.

At least half of the parties and blocs running for the parliament support Kocharian in one way or another. The most influential of them is the Republican Party (HHK) of Prime Minister Andranik Markarian. Its electoral slate comprises 10 government members, including Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian. The Republicans, who control many government bodies and possess substantial financial resources, are seen by most observers as the most powerful single party in Armenia.

Another major pro-Kocharian force is the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutiun). It has tried, unsuccessfully, in the past to challenge the HHK positions and is now looking to stake a greater claim to the Armenian leadership.

Kocharian has so far avoided publicly endorsing any of his loyalists, even though his chief of staff, Artashes Tumanian, is high on the list of Dashnaktsutiun candidates. His obvious strategy is to prevent the opposition from winning the majority of seats by pushing as many pro-presidential parties into the next parliament as possible.

"I think Kocharian would not like to see a clear majority in the next parliament," Aghasi Yenokian, director of the Armenian Center for Political and International Studies, told EurasiaNet. "He would like to see there [in parliament] as many weak and obedient parties as possible so that he can unite or divide them at will in different situations. He is good at it."

The pro-Kocharian parties other than the HHK and Dashnaktsutiun are mostly small and are not represented in the current legislature. But they have recently been beefed up, as several government-connected tycoons have joined their tickets in hopes of securing parliament seats.

Even the center-left Dashnaktsutiun has teamed up with several wealthy businessmen, among them tobacco magnate Hrant Vartanian. Kocharian apparently hopes that the so-called "oligarchs" will give his loyalists the muscle to make a strong showing in the polls. But, analysts say, he may have trouble living up to their expectations.

"Kocharian gave fairly lavish promises to all of the parties that supported his presidential bid," Yenokian said. "Those parties are now demanding what he promised them in exchange for their services. And because there is no single party of power in Armenia, they will end up fighting each other."

This would play into the hands of Kocharian's opponents. The most important of them is the recently formed Artarutiun (Justice) alliance. The coalition comprises over a dozen opposition parties that support Demirchian. Artarutiun leaders believe that if the May elections are free and fair, they can secure a parliamentary majority. Another major opposition contender is the National Unity Party of Artashes Geghamian, the third-placed presidential candidate.

The Demirchian-led opposition continues to challenge the official outcome of the presidential race with an ongoing campaign of street protests. It is also awaiting hearings in the Constitutional Court on its appeal to invalidate the March 5 run-off vote. "Rest assured that I will continue to fight for the triumph of justice," Demirchian told thousands of supporters at a rally in Yerevan on March 28.

The post-election tensions could rise further during the announcement of the court's verdict (which is unlikely to favor Demirchian) and Kocharian's inauguration ceremony later this month. Authorities, meanwhile, continue to arrest and jail scores of opposition supporters attending pro-Demirchian rallies. Government sources say that at least 69 people were sentenced to up to 15 days in jail from March 17-25 alone for "disrupting public order" and other alleged offenses. However, the opposition demonstrations have been remarkably peaceful and, with the detainees' trials held behind closed doors in violation of Armenian law, the authorities have not offered any proof of their charges.

The ongoing government crackdown is a key reason why Artarutiun does not rule out the possibility of boycotting the May elections. Armenian authorities hope the parliamentary vote will gain the approval of Western monitors, and thereby improve Armenia's international standing.