Azerbaijan Probes for Advantages in Karabakh Talks

Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev may be in the United States for talks on a Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement, but his thoughts appear to be drifting towards Russia. There are indications that Aliyev has recognized that the best chances for Azerbaijan obtaining an acceptable Karabakh settlement hinge on Baku's ability to strike a deal with Moscow. Accordingly, Azerbaijani rhetoric regarding Caspian Basin geopolitics has shifted in recent weeks.

Aliyev, along with just about every other official involved with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks, is circumspect when discussing the prospects for a breakthrough in the long-running negotiations mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group. By all appearances, the Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue on Karabakh is deadlocked, with little room for significant progress. Before departing for the US -- where the latest round of talks gets underway April 3 in Key West, Florida -- Aliyev would only say that "it is impossible to predict the results in advance," the Interfax news agency reported.

Following the last round of Karabakh talks, held in early March in Paris, Aliyev was clearly chagrined with Armenia's intransigent stance on Karabakh. Armenian President Kocharian has been steadfast in his demand that a political settlement leave Nagorno-Karabakh outside Azerbaijani jurisdiction. [For additional details see Eurasia Insight archives]. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani officials have said they are willing to grant Karabakh broad autonomous powers, while insisting that the enclave remain a constituent part of Azerbaijan.

In recent weeks, Aliyev has engaged in a series of flanking maneuvers, hoping to gain an advantage that might prompt Armenia to soften its position. On an official visit to Turkey in mid-March, for example, Aliyev trumpeted closer military cooperation between the two countries, even suggesting that Ankara might station troops on Azerbaijani soil. In addition, the Azerbaijani president has struck a bellicose note in public pronouncements on Karabakh, hinting ominously that Azerbaijan would consider resuming the war if Armenia refuses to make negotiating concessions.

At the same time, Azerbaijani leaders have made overtures towards Russia, aiming to secure Moscow's support for a negotiated settlement. Russia is Armenia's key ally in the region, and as such, is the region's most formidable power-broker. Indeed, Russian pressure may be the only viable means to compel a shift in Armenia's negotiating stance on Karabakh.
Since the Soviet collapse in 1991, Azerbaijan and Russia have feuded over control of Caspian basin natural resources, and their export routes. Moscow has sought to retain a controlling interest in the region, while Baku has engaged the West in an effort to steer an independent course. But on March 26, top Azerbaijani officials opened the door for a possible deal. First, Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev acknowledged that Russia realistically has the greatest potential to resolve the Karabakh question. "If we take into account that Russia has its own military bases in Armenia, and regards it as its main ally