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EURASIA INSIGHT

ARMENIA: YEREVAN BRACES FOR PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION, PROTESTS
Marianna Grigoryan 4/04/08

This article was updated on 4/06/08 to correct a quote attribution and the state of health of opposition activist Suren Sureniants.

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With less than a week to go before Armenia’s presidential inauguration, attention is riveted on whether a new administration will be able to foster a truce in the ongoing political battle between the country’s opposition and government.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian is due to be sworn in as Armenia’s next chief executive on April 9 inside Yerevan’s Opera House, adjacent to Freedom Square, the central staging point for past opposition demonstrations. The square remains under tight police control following clashes with protestors on March 1. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While authorities are busy preparing for the inauguration ceremony, opposition representatives from about two dozen political parties and other organizations -- those supporting Levon Ter-Petrosian, the second-place finisher in the bitterly disputed presidential election in February -- are looking for new ways to make their dissenting voices heard.

On inauguration day itself, the opposition is preparing a public rally and a mourning march to commemorate the victims of the March 1 violence. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "On April 9, all the Armenian people will commemorate those who died for their freedom, marking it as a day of mourning and resistance, wearing black and with other symbols and ceremonies of mourning," announced a statement from National Awakening, a union of non-governmental organizations supporting the opposition.

While National Awakening pledges that the inauguration day protest will demonstrate voters’ resolve to "recover" the "victory that was temporarily taken from them," some analysts question how ready the opposition actually is to launch a fresh campaign against the government. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Aside from a recent meeting with Council of Europe representatives, Ter-Petrosian has largely vanished from the public scene, keeping quiet in recent weeks. Most opposition leaders have been arrested or went into hiding after March 1, and subsequent amendments to the law on public meetings have put tough restrictions on public rallies. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The amendments have done nothing to allay fears of a fresh crackdown, according to one pro-opposition political analyst. "In reality, such legislative changes banning public rallies and marches and other measures are designed to create an atmosphere of fear among the people, which is against the tenets of human rights," commented Aghasi Yenokian. "Creating an atmosphere of fear cannot solve any problem."

To get around the law, other forms of protest have been found. A few days after the opposition’s March 21 march, the first since the March 1 crackdown, many Yerevan residents began to take part in so-called "popular or political walks" around town. The site for these impromptu strolls changed each day; other participants played chess on sidewalks, read books on benches or staged debates among themselves.

Under the amendments, rallies can be banned if the police and National Security Service consider that they involve hate speech, agitation for violence, or calls to overthrow "the constitutional order" by force. While open-air book reading and chess playing do not fall under those categories, the unstructured protests still have drawn a police response.

"They began to put people en masse into police cars and take them to police stations. Don’t they have the right to walk?" commented Ruzan Khachatrian, a spokeswoman for the People’s Party of Armenia, one of the parties that supported Ter-Petrosian’s candidacy. "I have lived in the city center for more than 20 years and they [police] hamper my right to walk. � I will go to court."

Opposition journalist and publicist Tigran Paskevichian, who was also detained by police while on "a political stroll", says that he was released after spending some time in a police station answering questions. "I was asked what I was doing there, I said I was reading a book. They asked whether I couldn’t find another place for reading a book," said Paskevichian.

Governing Republican Party of Armenia spokesman Eduard Sharmazanov says that political motivations should not be sought in the application of the law. "There must be law and order in this country where there is an aspiration for democracy," Sharmazanov told EurasiaNet.org. "There is a court for complaints where rights are defended. We ourselves are advocates of a country where laws are respected."

When adopting the amendments on the law on assembly, MPs included a special provision for it to come into effect the day after its official publication, rather than 10 days after that date, as is customary. A number of prominent local and international organizations have taken issue with the amendments, calling on authorities to respect the rights of opposition detainees. In a joint paper released April 2, the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights criticized the Armenian government, saying that "they [the amendments] restrict further the right of assembly in a significant fashion."

Meanwhile, a March 27 report issued by Human Rights Watch stated that the amendments "violate Armenia’s obligation to respect peaceful assembly." It also noted that the changes "effectively punish peaceful demonstrators for the violence that took place on March 1."

Arrests of walking protestors reportedly have decreased in the last four days, coinciding with a fact-finding visit by the AGO Group of the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers. The envoys, charged with monitoring Armenia’s compliance with Council of Europe membership requirements, met both with government officials and with Ter-Petrosian.

At a joint news conference on March 31 with Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian, AGO Group head Per Sjogren said that the envoys advocated a six-point proposal to return the situation in Armenia to a "democratic path." The AGO Group has proposed starting a national inquiry into the March 1 events with involvement by foreign experts. Revising the amendments restricting public rallies, releasing political prisoners, ensuring detainees’ rights to see their family and embarking on a "national dialogue" between opposition and the government were among the additional points.

"I think that the proposals are aimed at improving the situation," Oskanian said. "But only discussion will show what final results they will produce."

As yet, no sign exists that such dialogue is imminent. On April 2, about three dozen detainees held in pre-trial detention for attempting to foster a revolution went on a hunger strike. Without an end to "the torture of innocent people" and reexamination of their cases, the group pledged to stage an "open-ended" hunger strike as of April 9. One senior opposition member, Suren Sureniants of the Republic (Hanrapetutiun) Party, has been on a hunger strike since March 24; he is now under medical supervision.

At his press conference, the Council of Europe’s Sjogren told journalists that he had "received a positive answer" when he asked about the release of prisoners "kept in custody for political activities." Said Sjogren: "The answer implies that this problem will get a solution."

After his inauguration, Sarkisian will come under pressure to restore a sense of political equilibrium in Yerevan. If reconciliation efforts stall, Armenia could suffer some serious financial consequences. In a March 11 letter, the head of the US-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation warned outgoing President Robert Kocharian that "recent events could have negative effects on Armenia’s eligibility for MCC funding." The country is scheduled to receive $235.6 million in assistance funds through the program

For now, US diplomats in Yerevan seem inclined to give president-elect Sarkisian the benefit of the doubt. "We think it is only fair to give the new administration time to turn the situation around," US Charge d’Affairs Joseph Pennington said at a March 28 press conference. "So if we see those negative trends turn into a positive direction, obviously that will have a positive impact on the decisions of Millennium Challenge Corporation."

Editor�s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a reporter for the ArmeniaNow.com weekly in Yerevan.

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