Experts Wonder if $8.2 Billion in Afgan Aid is Sufficient to Break the Country's Vicious Cycle

International donors have pledged $8.2 billion over three years to foster Afghanistan's reconstruction. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has pronounced himself satisfied with the international aid commitment, despite the fact that it is less than one-third of the amount that he sought heading into the March 31-April 1 Berlin donors' conference. Many Afghan watchers are less enthused about the Berlin conference results than is Karzai. They express concern that the international aid will be insufficient to break Afghanistan's vicious cycle of violence.

Representatives from over 50 countries pledged to contribute to the Afghan reconstruction fund during the Berlin conference, the third such conclave of donor governments since the US-led military campaign ousted the Taliban in late 2001. Out of the $8.2 billion commitment, roughly $5 billion is planned to be distributed during the first year of the three-year plan. The remainder would be spread out across the last two years.

During the conference, the United States announced that it was substantially increasing its aid outlay to Afghanistan to $2.2 billion. Nevertheless, that figure is dwarfed by the roughly $12 billion spent annually by the United States on ongoing military operations. With roughly 12,000 US troops in Afghanistan, the Bush administration is expending roughly $1 million on each American soldier per year in the country.

Donor nations also expressed a desire to promote stabilization in Afghanistan's provinces. In many areas of Afghanistan security conditions are tenuous, as banditry and "warlordism" remain deeply entrenched. In a statement, Berlin conference participants called on efforts to demobilize Afghan militia members to continue. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

They also lauded the decision of the International Security and Assistance Force for Afghanistan to expand its peacekeeping operations outside of Kabul, as well as NATO's intention to establish five new Provincial Reconstruction Teams to help protect aid workers operating in Afghan provinces. In recent months, at least 11 aid workers have been killed by Islamic radicals, who aim to disrupt the reconstruction process.

While welcoming efforts to promote stability, the Berlin conference did not yield any specific pledges to significantly expand the international troop presence in Afghanistan. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer made only vague references to several countries exploring the idea of dispatching troops to Afghanistan.

Karzai said he was "very grateful" for the international support. Prior to the start of the conference, he publicly appealed for $27.5 billion over seven years, or roughly $4 billion per year. The structure of the Berlin conference aid arrangement means that the Afghan government should have more than it expected for 2004-2005, a key period for the reconstruction process. The country is scheduled to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in September, thus completing the country's the political transition as envisioned by the Bonn process worked out in late 2001. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The government that emerges from those elections will be able to draw on a generous reserve of funds, if donors fulfill the pledges.

Given the previous track record of Afghan donor conference, however, some observers raise doubts that all the money will be delivered on time to Afghanistan. They point to the experience of the Tokyo aid conference in early 2002, when donors pledged up to $5 billion but failed to deliver it in a timely manner. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

German political observers suggested that the Berlin conference marked a make-or-break moment for Afghanistan's stabilization prospects. A newspaper commentary published by the Mitteldeutsche Zeitung characterized Afghanistan as a "laboratory," in which Western nations were trying to develop an effective antidote to Islamic radical ideology through the creation of a democratic alternative. "If it [democratization] doesn't work here {in Afghanistan], the whole concept will fail, and no one can risk that," the newspaper editorial said. "The credibility of the United States and the western world are at stake."

On the eve of the conference, the aid organization Care International urged the international community to meet Karzai's $27.5 billion aid request, warning that the consequences of not doing so could end up encouraging Afghan instability and the proliferation of international terrorism. "While the price tag for a more stable Afghanistan may appear high, it is nothing compared to the potentially astronomical costs of failure," Care International said in a report titled The Cost of Doing Too Little.

Care was highly critical of the international community's commitment to rebuilding Afghanistan. "Despite the rhetorical importance with which the world claims to regard Afghanistan, actual funding levels remain astonishingly low," the Care report said, noting that in 2002-03, Afghanistan received dramatically less international reconstruction assistance than have other nations in similar situations. Per capital assistance for Afghans totaled $67 during 2002-03, according to Care. East Timor received $256 per capital from 1999-2001; Bosnia-Herzegovina received $249 per capital from 1995-97; and Rwanda received $98 per capita from 1994-96, according to Care. Even if donor nations had pledged $27.5 billion, that figure would have raised "the level of per capita assistance from $67 to $182" in Afghanistan, Care added.

In Kabul, reaction to the conference appeared mixed. Some media outlets, such as the Payam-i-Mojahed weekly, suggested the government was misspending international aid. A Payam-i-Mojahed commentary complained that despite the billions already received, many residents of Kabul still do not have easy access to electricity or clean water. Conditions in Afghan provinces tend to be far worse than in the capital. "Did the international donors before extending new aid ask or think about where and how the previous aid was spent," the commentary asked. Payam-i-Mojahed is affiliated with the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance, which appears to be mobilizing to challenge Karzai for control of the government in the September elections.

Reconstruction efforts are facing several daunting security challenges, in particular drug production. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The cultivation of opiates has surged over the past three years. Approximately one out of every 15 Afghans is now involved in the cultivation of narcotics and the country is responsible for about 75 percent of the world's raw opium production.

Afghan government members, along with independent experts, say drug production must be curbed if reconstruction efforts are to succeed. Care characterized the drug-production issue as a "spreading cancer," warning that it "will pose a growing threat to the Afghan state over time." In Berlin, Karzai said Islamic radicals used drug-trade profits to fuel their ongoing insurgency. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some political observers say the current level of international aid for Afghan government is insufficient to offer viable income alternatives for Afghan farmers, many of whom depend on the profits from poppy cultivation for survival. On April 5, about 300 farmers gathered in eastern Nangarhar Province, one of the centers of poppy production, to protest government eradication efforts. The government reportedly is seeking to destroy up 30 percent of the country's poppy fields before the crop can be harvested. Many farmers in Nangarhar have vowed to forcibly resist any government effort to destroy their fields.

In addition to the drug cultivation issue, Karzai's government is facing a growing challenge from the spreading Taliban insurgency in eastern and southern Afghanistan. Elsewhere, the central government is confronting resistance from a variety of warlords. In western Herat Province, for example, tension between Karzai and the region's "emir," Ismail Khan, continues to linger following a violent confrontation that left the warlord's eldest son dead. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Karzai recently dispatched 1,500 troops from the new, US-trained Afghan National Army to Herat in an effort to bolster Kabul's authority in the region. Khan, however, is vigorously resisting central government efforts to diminish his authority. According to some reports, forces loyal to Khan have arrested and, in a few instances, executed individuals in Herat who are perceived to be loyal to the central government.