Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's rapid consolidation of authority is forcing Russian leaders to rethink the Moscow-Tbilisi relationship. Suspicion in Moscow lingers over Saakashvili's Western political orientation. Yet, Saakashvili's ability to control Georgia's executive and legislative branches of government leaves Moscow little choice but to deal with the Georgian president, some Russian political analysts say. Others, however, are continuing to urge caution, claiming that Saakashvili's dependability as a diplomatic partner remains unproven.
In Georgia, the clear victory by pro-presidential parties in the March 28 parliamentary elections has helped pave the way for a marked departure from the political chaos that characterized ex-president Eduard Shevardnadze's tenure. On April 1, the Central Election Commission reported that Saakashvili¹s National Movement-Democrats bloc had won just over 67 percent of the vote, according to the Rustavi 2 television channel. The only other bloc to clear the 7 percent threshold for parliamentary representation was the Industrialists-New Rights coalition, which received 7.62 percent of the vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The results will give pro-presidential forces an overwhelming majority in the next Georgian parliament.
With the support of parliament assured, Saakashvili can push ahead with implementation of an ambitious reform agenda that seeks to drastically curb corruption and overhaul revenue collection, as well as restore central government authority over recalcitrant regions of the country, including Ajaria. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On top of working with a friendly legislature, recent constitutional reforms in Georgia have reinforced Saakashvili's authority. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Russia has long had a contentious relationship with Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Since Saakashvili's election as president in January, Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, have struggled to take measure of the new Georgian leader. During a visit to Moscow in February, Saakashvili reportedly left Russian leaders impressed. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Nevertheless, the visit did not dispel doubts about Saakashvili's willingness to take Russian geopolitical interests into account as he presses ahead with Georgia's reform process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
In the past, Russia has often taken a tough line with Georgia, frequently employing bellicose rhetoric. Confronted with Saakashvili's virtually unassailable authority at home, however, the Kremlin should now adopt a more accommodating posture towards Tbilisi, many in Moscow policy-making circles are saying. "Both Russia and Georgia will have to radically change the rules of their game," the political analyst Valeria Sycheva wrote in a recent op-ed published in the Russian journal Itogi. "Moscow will have to stop backing [Georgia's]
Editor's note:
Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York; and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University. He is now based in Istanbul, Turkey.
