Eurasia Insight:
US-RUSSIA: THE WINDOW ON PUTIN'S SOUL HAS FROSTED OVER
4/07/08

At their first meeting, in 2001 in Slovenia, US President George W. Bush was famously able to look Russian leader Vladimir Putin “in the eye” and “get a sense of his soul.” Bush then pronounced Putin a man he could do business with. “And that’s the beginning of a very constructive relationship,” Bush stated.

Flash forward almost seven years – to the last meeting the duo held while still heads of their respective states: The Bush-Putin partnership hasn’t exactly turned out the way the US president predicted back then. If Bush, during his April 6 trek to Sochi, tried to peer into his special little peep hole on Putin’s soul, he found that it had been patched up. The two tried in Sochi to settle the outstanding strategic issues dividing the two countries, but made little, if any progress.

A contributing factor in the failure of Bush’s prognostication capability is the reversal of fortune that both the United States and Russia has experienced. In the spring of 2001, the United States was the world’s unchallenged power, while Russia was still reeling from the Soviet collapse and Boris Yeltsin’s booze-cruise leadership style. Today, it is the American economy that is teetering, while the Iraq War blows a gaping hole in Washington’s budget, thereby threatening prosperity for future generations. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is flush with cash from skyrocketing energy prices, and the inside-the-ring-road crowd is now bursting with hubris.

The most significant stumbling block during the Sochi discussions was the US plan to install missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. Putin has characterized the plan as hostile to Russia’s interests, and has proposed that the two countries jointly operate an anti-missile station in Azerbaijan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Team Bush has tried furiously in recent months to cajole the Kremlin into going along with the Polish-Czech option. But unlike his two predecessors in the Kremlin – Yeltsin and Mikhail Gorbachev – Putin was in a position to keep on saying ‘no.’ At an April 6 joint news conference, Bush could only try to put positive spin on a brush off.

"This is an area we've got more work to do to convince the Russian side that the system is not aimed at Russia," Bush said. A vaguely phrased framework declaration issued at Sochi provided no hint that missile defense talks were headed toward compromise, stating merely that the two countries would “intensify our dialogue.”

The framework declaration began with a preamble about how the United States and Russia had put the Cold War behind them, and how the two countries were ready for a relationship built upon “the core principles of friendship, cooperation, openness, and predictability.” At the joint press conference, Bush insisted that the Cold War had been given a formal burial. “It is over. It ended,” he said.

Judging from the results of the Sochi meeting, and from the broader trend in the Caspian Basin energy game, one might be inclined to say both Bush and Putin protest too much. Sure, Mutual Assured Destruction is no longer an option, but both leaders nevertheless seem to be pretending that the United States and Russia aren’t competitors. Whereas the competition before revolved around arms, today it’s connected to economics. The chances that both countries could build a relationship based on those core principles outlined in the framework document would be a lot better if both countries didn’t try to sugar coat their still existing rivalry. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

If Bush hoped to build his foreign policy legacy during his travels to Bucharest for the NATO summit and for his final parlay with Putin in Sochi, his mission was largely a dud. Not only did Putin not play ball, the European allies in NATO stuffed Bush’s attempt to promote Georgia’s and Ukraine’s candidacies for the Atlantic alliance. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While he may not have done much to burnish his image for posterity, Bush at least seems to have learned a lesson about forecasting the future. When Bush was asked if, during a brief meeting with President-elect Dmitry Medvedev, he had had any insight into the incoming Russian leader’s soul, the US president avoided making definitive statements. “My first impressions are very positive -- smart fellow,” Bush said. “And so you can write down, I was impressed and looking forward to working with him.”

Fittingly, it was Putin, exuding confidence that history will judge him to be the revivalist of a Great Russia, who provided the signature moment for his farewell meeting with Bush. At an April 5 dinner, Bush and Putin participated in the entertainment portion of the program, evidently busting some folk dance moves. Before the start of their discussions the next day, Bush thanked Putin for the meal, adding; “I'm only happy that our press corps didn't try -- see me trying to dance the -- dance the dance that I was asked to do.”

To which Putin responded: “We were able to see that you are a brilliant dancer.”

Given that Putin will remain in the Kremlin as prime minister, he stands to keep on doing ‘The Hustle’ with the next US president.