Azerbaijan: Turkey Could Prove Spoiler for Nagorno-Karabakh Peace

Turkish-Armenian relations have been marked by animosity for much of the past century, with tension continuing to revolve around the mass slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turkish soldiers during World War I. On an official visit to the United States in late January, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government might decide to re-open the border with Armenia "if the friendly initiatives of Turkey were reciprocated." Erdogan said that Turks living in economically depressed neighboring regions with Armenia want to see the border opened so that they can easily trade with the former Soviet republic. Currently, trade between the two states – estimated by the Turkish-Armenian Business Council, a non-governmental organization, at roughly $70 million – takes place via Georgia and Iran.

Without Turkey, Azerbaijan would be the only state maintaining a blockade of Armenia over Yerevan's ongoing occupation of Azerbaijani territory captured during the Nagorno-Karabakh war. A decision to open Turkey's borders with Armenia, Aliyev said, would leave Baku at a disadvantage in negotiating for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territory. "If Turkey were to open its doors to Armenia, Azerbaijan will lose an important lever in finding a solution to the conflict," the president told reporters on March 24 after returning from an official visit to Uzbekistan. "It also would make it impossible for us to continue the peace talks and would even bring the talks to an end."

Already that threat appears to have been put to work. A meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers, originally scheduled for March 29 in Prague, was cancelled at "the wish of one side," OSCE Minsk Group Chairman Yuri Merzlyakov told the Azerbaijani Channel ATV. The Minsk Group, made up of the US, UK, Russia and France, is charged with overseeing the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Citing an "informed source" in the Armenian Foreign Ministry, the Armenian news agency Mediamax reported that the cancellation had not been at Armenia¹s instigation.

Little progress has been made in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process since 2002. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Despite intermittent announcements of fresh peace proposals, and a meeting between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and President Aliyev last December in Geneva, no concrete breakthrough has emerged. Aliyev stressed in early February that he was "not in favor of making compromises," and Azerbaijani officials later announced that they were in "no hurry" to find a solution to the Karabakh question.

Since Aliyev's initial comments, other Azerbaijani leaders have attempted to exert pressure on Ankara to maintain the status quo. "If Turkey opens the border with Armenia, it will deal a blow not only to Azerbaijani-Turkish friendship but also to the entire Turkic world," Azerbaijani Parliament Speaker Murtuz Alasgarov told MPs on April 6, according to a Trend news agency report.

Until recently, Turkish support for Azerbaijan on the Karabakh question appeared steadfast. Turkey and Azerbaijan share close cultural ties. Although Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Armenian independence in 1991, Ankara has no diplomatic relations with its neighbor. In 1993, Ankara closed the Turkish border with Armenia in an act of solidarity with Azerbaijan.

But now, more than 10 years later, Turkey's foreign policy objectives have changed. In December 2004, the European Union will decide whether to begin accession talks with Turkey, potentially putting the country in line to become the EU's first predominantly Muslim member state. To enhance Turkey's chances for success, Prime Minister Erdogan launched an ambitious reform program to improve the country's checkered record on human, political and ethnic minority rights and rebuild its economy from a five-year-long recession. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

From the EU's perspective, lifting the blockade of Armenia remains a key component of any program for change. A draft version of the European Parliament's yearly report on the status of Turkey's accession bid reportedly called on the country "to open the borders with Armenia, establish good-neighbor relations . . . and to give up any action impeding the reconciliation of the two countries."

EU economic clout provides a compelling incentive for Ankara to listen. In 2002, the latest year for which figures are available, the EU ranked as Turkey's top trade partner, accounting for more than 50 percent of its exports and 45 percent of its imports. At the same time, the United States has also urged Turkey to rebuild ties with Armenia. At a March 26 press conference in Yerevan, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage stated that restoring official economic ties between the two states would bring benefits to both sides "rather dramatically and relatively quickly."

For its part, Azerbaijan represents vast oil and natural gas wealth that could enable Turkey to realize its dream of becoming a highly profitable East-West energy bridge. Conscious of this weight, Aliyev was quick to remind Ankara where its interests should lie. "Turkey is a great and powerful nation and I am sure that Turkey will withstand the pressures [to open its border with Armenia]," the Azerbaijani president stressed. "The Turkish-Azerbaijani brotherhood is above everything."

Aliyev said he had received previous assurances from both Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul that the Turkish-Armenian border would be opened only after Armenia withdraws from Azerbaijan's occupied territories. Ahmed Unal Cevikoz, Turkey's ambassador to Baku, told The Baku Sun, an English-language weekly, that Erdogan's statement in Washington had probably been "misunderstood" by the Azerbaijanis.

The Turkish ambassador emphasized that his country maintains all three of its conditions for opening its border with Armenia: withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, an end to Armenian territorial claims on Turkey's Eastern Anatolia region, and an end to Armenia's campaign to secure international recognition of the 1915 slaughter of 1.5 million Armenians by Turkey's Ottoman Empire as genocide.

But some Azerbaijani analysts believe that Turkey's changes on other foreign policy questions presage a similar about-face on its Karabakh position. Thirty years after its invasion of Cyprus, Turkey recently began talks with Greece on a UN reunification plan for the island, another ingredient for Turkey's accession to the EU. Turkey also has bowed to US pressure on the Kurdish question, as Ankara has refrained from sending Turkish troops into Kurdish-populated northern Iraq, and has since extended language and media rights to its own Kurdish populations. "This policy of retreat is obvious in the positions that Ankara now holds on the issues of Cyprus, the Iraqi Turkomen and also on Karabakh," said Altay Goyushov, a Baku-based expert on Turkish affairs.

Some analysts argue that Erdogan's government is more concerned with expanding trade than it is about potential for friction with a fellow Turkic, Muslim state. "I think there are many in AKP who believe that increased commerce makes better neighbors, and thus eases the way for better relations," Ugur Akinci, a Turkish analyst who accompanied Erdogan to Washington, wrote in an opinion piece published in the Turkish Daily News.

The World Bank agrees. Both the Bank and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization have long argued that the blockade has hindered the economic development of both Armenia and Turkey. The World Bank has estimated that the lifting of both the Azerbaijani and Turkish blockades could increase Armenia's GDP by as much as 30-38 percent. The Turkish-Armenian Business Council has estimated that bilateral trade could reach $300 million per year with the lifting of the blockade.

As Azerbaijan looks on from the side, one analyst cautions that patience is the best operating strategy. "We should consider that Azerbaijan and Turkey are two separate countries," said Goyushov, "and although the two are bound by ethnicity and religion, their interests can sometimes be different."