Armenia: Ex-President Kocharian Preparing for a Return to Yerevan Politics?

After a long silence, ex-Armenian president Robert Kocharian is voicing criticism of the current government's economic policies. His statements, taken together with recent visits abroad, are stirring speculation that the 56-year-old politician is planning a return to Armenian politics.

In an April 8 statement distributed to Armenian media outlets, Kocharian insisted that he has not yet decided to make a return to politics. "If I decide to return . . . I will declare that openly and directly, just as I do everything else," the statement said.

Kocharian has been holding high-level meetings with representatives of some key foreign allies of Armenia. The trips began with a January 20 visit to Tehran for talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. Then, while Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan was on an official visit to Paris on March 9-11, Kocharian on March 10 met in Paris with French ex-president Jacques Chirac. On March 27, Kocharian had a meeting with Robert Bradtke, the American co-chair of the Minsk Group, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe entity overseeing the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive

Opposition leaders claim that Kocharian's travels offer evidence of what one politician terms the former president's "political ambitions."

"Recently, you could see Robert Kocharian sort of taking steps to come back; his visits to Iran and France preceded the visits of the Armenian president to those countries," commented Artyusha Shahbazian, secretary of the opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun's parliamentary faction. "However, one cannot forecast anything; we'll speak about it when [the situation] becomes clear."

After a 10-year run in office as president, Kocharian in 2008 declared he was done with politics; he claimed that rumors that he hoped to serve as prime minister under Serzh Sargsyan, a longtime political comrade-in-arms, were not true. Sargsyan won the controversial 2008 presidential election. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In an exclusive interview with the Mediamax news agency on March 23, Kocharian took direct aim at Sargsyan's administration, affirming that the economic situation in Armenia had been far better under his own administration. Armenia's Gross Domestic Product sank by 14.4 percent in 2009, while inflation reached 6.5 percent, according to data from the National Statistics Service. Official unemployment rates rose by more than 10 percent over the last year.

Chances for a quick turnaround look slim. The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts up to an 8 percent rise in inflation in May. Some experts predict that a 37.5-percent increase in natural gas prices, effective April 1, could further undermine the economic situation.

Kocharian claimed that in early 2008, before he left office, Armenia had an account balance of 100 billion drams (about $246.6 million). It was, he asserted, "an ideal macro economy: The country spent less than it earned and saved part of the revenue for a rainy day." The implication was clear: the Sargsyan administration's handling of the economy has been poor, even taking into account the unavoidable damage inflicted by the global economic downturn.

Responding to Kocharian's comments, Eduard Sharmazanov, a spokesman for the governing Republican Party of Armenia said that constructive criticism -- whether from Armenia's first post-Soviet president (opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian), second president (Kocharian), an expert or a politician -- should not bother anyone. At the same time, Sharmazanov emphasized that officials "support [Prime Minister] Tigran Sarkisian's government."

It is "quite natural that former presidents voice their opinions on this or that issue," added Sharmazanov. "Whether the second president, Mr. Kocharian, comes back to politics or not, it's only up to him to decide."

Opposition Heritage Party MP Stepan Safarian said that Kocharian's comments were aimed at influencing voters who feel the pinch of rising prices. "No doubt, Kocharian's ? interviews and his visits show his ambitions to come back to power," Safarian commented.

Independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian believes Kocharian's recent activity is linked to his reportedly close relationship to influential Armenian business tycoons. "The oligarchs need support, and they believe Kocharian will provide such support because the authorities are trying to abandon this role [of catering to business tycoons]," Bozoian claimed.

"Kocharian's supporters are discontent with the current authorities, who are centralizing the financial streams, and, thus, directly hitting the oligarchs," continued Bozoian, who added that the conditions for any Kocharian political comeback "are not favorable."

Criticism of the government's economic program has also recently been heard from Gagik Tsarukian, head of the Prosperous Armenia Party, a member of Armenia's governing coalition. In mid-March, Tsarukian, who has long been seen as a Kocharian political ally, charged that Economics Minister Nerses Yeritsian is not suited for his post.