Azerbaijani President to Hold Talks with US leader on April 28

In what some American analysts see as a US response to recent Russian moves that strengthened Moscow's Caspian Basin energy position, the White House has announced that US President George W. Bush will hold talks with Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev on April 28 in Washington.

"Azerbaijan is a key ally in a region of great importance and a valued partner," said a White House statement issued April 10. The statement added that Bush and Aliyev "will discuss a range of issues including democracy promotion and cooperation in the Caucasus, energy diversification, and our common commitment to working together to advance freedom and security."

Despite the Bush administration's characterization of Baku as a "key ally," US officials had been resisting the idea of a face-to-face meeting between Bush and Aliyev, in large measure due to the tainted elections held in Azerbaijan in recent years. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

US concerns about Azerbaijan's spotty record on democratization, however, appeared to diminish significantly following the early April announcement that Kazakhstan would enhance energy cooperation with Russia, the main US economic and political rival in Central Asia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Kazakhstan's agreements with Russia heightened concern about Astana's participation in the US-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. US officials are also trying to arrange a summit meeting, or potentially two, between Bush and Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Details of the Bush-Aliyev summit were reportedly discussed during an April 7 meeting between Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Washington. Earlier the same day Mammadyarov outlined Azerbaijan's policy goals and concerns during an appearance at the Heritage Foundation.

Mammadyarov sought to dispel the country's poor democratization image. He insisted that democratization, the rule of law and the protection of human rights are priorities now, in stark contrast to the Soviet era when Azerbaijan was the subject of the Communist command economy. However, he cautioned that the transformation would be slow, citing the country's lack of experience in democratization. He also said that improving Azerbaijan's "human capital," would be a gradual process, in part because it is a "generational issue."

The Asian Development Bank recently projected Azerbaijani GDP growth to total 30.5 percent in 2006 and over 27 percent next year. But Mammadyarov acknowledged that relatively high inflation rates, caused by the massive and rapid rise in oil and gas revenues, posed a problem. To avoid the advent of so-called Dutch Disease, the foreign minister said that the Azerbaijani government was promoting agricultural ventures, particularly cotton and winemaking.

Azerbaijan is also investing heavily in infrastructure improvements. A top priority, Mammadyarov stated, was the expansion of the country's road and rail network. Plans are focusing on a $320-million rail route that would stretch from Azerbaijan, via Georgia, to Turkey and beyond to Western Europe.

Mammadyarov additionally indicated that he would strive to call increasing international attention to Azerbaijan's position on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "We cannot now live with such 20th century phenomena as forced border and ethnic changes," he said. At the same time, he stressed that a durable solution to the Karabakh conflict should be based on negotiations. In recent weeks, some Azerbaijani officials, including President Aliyev, have spoken of the possibility of resuming armed hostilities if a political deal isn't reached soon.