Eurasia Insight:
KYRGYZSTAN: IS A DUAL-POWER SCENARIO DEVELOPING?
Andreas Hedfors: 4/10/08

After enduring the harshest winter that most Kyrgyz can remember, opposition leaders in Bishkek are promising to make it a ”hot” spring with a renewed push against President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s administration. Public enthusiasm for renewed political infighting, however, appears to be tepid at best.

That is not to say that popular passions can’t be aroused. Infused with a sense of nationalist pride, protesters gathered in central Bishkek on April 10 to denounce a government plan to cede three parcels of territory to neighboring Kazakhstan. Police quickly broke up the demonstration and arrested all 50 participants.

The April 10 protest didn’t have a strong link to the domestic jockeying that has caused political gridlock in Bishkek for most of the time since the Tulip Revolution of 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A broad opposition coalition succeeded at various times in the past of exerting extreme pressure on Bakiyev, and for a short time in late 2006, it even appeared to have triumphed in the political struggle. But Bakiyev in 2007 staged a political comeback, culminating with parliamentary elections that left his opponents divided and isolated. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While Kyrgyzstan was locked in a deep freeze for the past three months, opposition leaders appeared lost in the political wilderness. "The opposition is a large group of diverse politicians, I believe they simply couldn't agree on what do to. Some took harsher positions, some more moderate ones, and that is why nothing has happened," said Nur Omarov, a professor of political sciences.

"Also, in late January financial pressure against [leading oppositioner Kubatbek] Baibolov made him officially pull out of politics, and this stunned the movement and made it focus on their personal problems," added Omarov, who teaches at the Slavic University in Kyrgyz capital Bishkek.

Now, Bakiyev opponents say they’re ready to make a comeback of their own. A starting point, they hope, will be the convocation of a kurultai, or national gathering of opposition supporters, scheduled for April 12. "Despite pressure from local authorities, 1,500 delegates have been appointed. We have a good organisation now. Of course, people have different views, but that is pluralism," says Alikbek Jekshenkulov, leader of For Justice, a local non-governmental organization (NGO). He added that individuals had pooled resources to cover facility rent and printing costs for the event.

The kurultai is part of a broader opposition strategy to develop shadow governing structures. In effect, Bakiyev critics are trying to rip a page out of the playbook of the Bolsheviks, who took advantage of a ”dual power” situation in Petrograd in 1917, first to bolster their influence, and then to seize power.

Jekshenkulov’s office in Manas Street in Bishkek hosts the "public parliament," a 50-person alternative assembly formed last January by opposition parties, NGOs and public figures. The official results of last December’s parliamentary elections gave the pro-presidential Ak Zhol Party 71 out of the 90 seats up for grabs. Opposition supporters say the official tally was rigged by the government, and argue that their alternative assembly is more representative of the popular will.

The public parliament’s two first meetings have screened the president's blueprint for privatizing the ailing energy sector. Not surprisingly, the sessions deemed the presidential plan unworkable. The assembly also has assailed the administration’s handling of the economy.

In a similar manner, the opposition played a guiding role in convening a ”people’s court” on March 17, the sixth anniversary of the Aksy tragedy, when security forces shot and killed six people during a protest in the southern Jalal-abad District. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Organizers maintained that the people’s court convened because those responsible for giving the order to shoot were never tried in a formal court. The trial’s verdict found former president Askar Akayev, along with Bakiyev, guilty of complicity in the killings, supposedly because the chief executives were negligent in maintaining constitutional order. The popular tribunal and its results were condemned by government officials. Opposition supporters, meanwhile, heartily endorsed the proceedings. "The verdict should absolutely be implemented, [whether] in one year or in twenty," Erkin Bulekbaev, the Green Party leader, told a local weekly Reporter Bishkek.

Amid rumors that Bakiev may announce early presidential elections, some observers believe the upcoming kurultai will name a presidential candidate.

Some political analysts believe the opposition dual-power strategy has only a limited chance of success, mainly because it will have trouble attracting a critical mass of popular support. A large segment of the Kyrgyz public has grown exhausted with the political skirmishing, these observers point out. In addition, some prominent opposition leaders, such as Azimbek Beknazarov, seemed to have lost much of their popular esteem in recent months. In January, Beknazarov drew snickers with an announcement of the formation of a ”revolutionary committee” to force Bakiev from power. While in the wake of the Aksy tragedy, Beknazarov was hailed as an advocate of the popular cause, he is now generally viewed as a political dilletante.

Citing the examples of other prominent Bakiyev critics who ended up going over to the government side – in particular, Almazbek Atambaev and Melis Eshimkanov, who became prime minister and head of state television, respectively – many erstwhile opposition supporters now believe that all the politicians at the top are merely struggling for access to perquisites and privileges, while disregarding national interests.

"This ruined confidence in the opposition. Except for certain of its leaders, who are still principled," said Joomart Saparbaev, leader of the youth section of the major Kyrgyz opposition party Ata-Meken.

Saparbaev, 23, is representative of perhaps a majority of young people in Kyrgyzstan that has grown alienated from the political process. An informal core group of young, politically involved Kyrgyz have expressed their disillusionment through the organization of protests, convened on a regular basis since the December parliamentary vote, with the theme of Ya ne veryu, or ”I don’t believe” in English.

Editor’s Note: Andreas Hedfors is a Kyrgyzstan-based freelance reporter.