In an effort to counter US attempts to geopolitically isolate Iran, officials in Tehran are trying to implement an ambitious program centering on trade and infrastructure investment in Central Asia and the Caucasus, two Iranian experts say.
Tehran is focusing most of its attention on areas with which Iran has strong cultural and historical ties, such as Tajikistan and western Afghanistan. But the strategy also involves other countries in the former Soviet Union, including Uzbekistan and Armenia. Tehran's aim is to create a diffuse patchwork of regional ties and institutions that can serve as a counterweight to US geopolitical pressure, according to two Iranian academics, Mohsen Milani of the University of South Florida, and Abbas Maleki of the International Institute for Caspian Studies in Tehran. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The two outlined the Iranian countermoves at an April 5 talk in Washington, sponsored by the Central Asia Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
Iran's preferred mode of investment is via massive infrastructure projects. For instance, Iran is building the Anzab tunnel that will connect the northern and southern parts of Tajikistan, and will eventually provide a road corridor from China through Central Asia to the Persian Gulf. It is also constructing the Sangtudinskaya-II hydroelectric plant in Tajikistan as part of a total $700 million investment in electricity in that country. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Iran is also among the leading donors to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. It pledged $560 million at the Tokyo donors' conference in 2002 all of which is expected to be disbursed by the end of 2006 and promised another $100 million at the London conference held last January. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
In 2005, Iran completed the $43 million, 125-km road from the Dougharoun region of Iran to Herat, and has announced that it will build a 176-km railroad from Iran to Herat. It is also improving its own railroad infrastructure with the aim of attracting cargo from Russia, China and Central Asia via Iran to ports in the Persian Gulf. In 2004, Iran completed the 1000-km Bafq-Mashhad railroad, which cut two days off the rail journey from Central Asia to the Persian Gulf. Tehran has steadily increased trade in recent years with its regional neighbors, in particular Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In addition, Iran is working with Armenia to build a natural gas pipeline. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Speaking at length about the Iranian-Afghan relationship, Milani noted that the growing volume of Iranian-Afghan trade rising from $120 million in 2002 to $250 million last year is enabling Tehran and Kabul to sweep political differences under the rug. Milani is publishing a paper in the upcoming issue of the Middle East Journal on Iran-Afghanistan relations.
Iran still hosts more than a million Afghan refugees and is the destination of a significant amount of Afghanistan's opium output. Tehran also is concerned about the Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration program in Afghanistan, believing that it is sapping the power of Iran-friendly Dari-speaking militias. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has engaged in what Milani characterized a "Pashtunization" of the Afghan government, marginalizing Dari speakers, as well as representatives of other ethnic groups in Afghanistan. [For background see related Eurasia Insight article].
Iran is now a major source of consumer goods in Afghanistan, and Iran-friendly power centers in Kabul are emerging, in particular the parliament, which is led by Speaker Yunus Qanooni, an ethnic Tajik.
Maleki pointed out that Tehran also is keeping quiet about many sources of controversy in Central Asia, in particular the 2005 Andijan massacre in Uzbekistan, and the continuing US military presence in Kyrgyzstan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the same time, Iran is active in the Economic Cooperation Organization, a trade and investment group that includes all the Central Asian countries plus Iran, Turkey and Pakistan. Tehran is also an observer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional security group that aims to provide a counterweight to US power in Central Asia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Editor's note:
Joshua Kucera is a Washington, DC,-based freelance writer who specializes in security issues in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East.
