EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Uzbekistan Terrorism Scare Hits Upcoming Tashkent Conference

EURASIA INSIGHT

TERRORISM SCARE HITS UPCOMING TASHKENT CONFERENCE
4/15/03

A recent State Department announcement counseled American citizens to "evaluate carefully the implications for their security and safety" of travel to Uzbekistan, citing reports that terrorists may be "planning attacks against hotels in Uzbekistan frequented by Westerners." While US officials provided no reason for the timing of the announcement, the reported discovery of bomb-like materials in the basement of a Tashkent hotel lend credence to the State Department’s expression of concern.

The State Department announcement came just about a month before Tashkent, the capital, hosts the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) Annual Meeting and Business Forum, which is scheduled for May 4-5.

Days after the State Department announcement, Russian media outlets on April 10 claimed that about 30 kilograms of strong explosives with detonators had been found in one of Tashkent’s hotels. A statement issued April 11 by Tashkent Deputy Mayor Abdulkahhar Tukhtayev said the reports "did not correspond to reality," and said such articles were "a provocation, meant first of all, to disrupt the [EBRD] forum." However, a reliable source endorsed the general details of the Russian media reports to EurasiaNet.

These days, Tashkent newspapers are full of articles concerning the EBRD and the upcoming forum. President Islam Karimov’s administration is acting like an eager host, apparently hoping that a successful conference will pave the way for increased international assistance. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Accordingly, landmarks throughout the city are undergoing restoration and renovation and roads are being repaved. To accommodate the large number of guests, many of the city’s hotels are being overhauled. The EurasiaNet source speculated that the explosives that were supposedly discovered may have been intended for use in an attack designed to coincide with the international gathering.

According to the source, a foreman at one hotel undergoing renovation was surveying the basement of the building when he noticed a unit that did not resemble a heater or otherwise seem to fit. He ordered workers to remove the unit and found an object that closely resembled a bomb. National security service agents reportedly arrived within minutes and took away 30 kilograms of ammonite with detonators. In addition, state security agents reportedly extracted a vow of secrecy from those who were aware of the discovery.

If accurate, the type of explosive and the amount found was sufficient to cause serious damage. "In general, 30 kilograms of ammonite is equivalent to 22.5 kilograms of TNT," says Oleg Kuchin, a veteran mining engineer. "If professionally exploded in the foundation, this amount of ammonite can collapse any building in Tashkent." Kuchin asserted that ammonite is more likely to scatter nearby objects than TNT. He also notes that ammonite often lies in storehouses at mines, where mine workers can easily remove it for unauthorized purposes.

Uzbekistan’s capital city last experienced a terrorism incident in February 1999, when a series of car bombs, apparently targeted at President Karimov, killed 16 people and wounded over 100. Karimov blamed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) for the bombings. In response, the government launched a crackdown on political and religious freedoms that is ongoing. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The IMU insurgency was shattered by the US-led campaign against terrorism in Afghanistan. However, in recent months there have been reports that the movement is regrouping. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Many analysts suspect that a resurgent IMU, allied with Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda network, the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement and extremist groups in Chechnya, may be behind the possible bombing attempt. "Undermining Uzbekistan’s already shaky economy, causing social instability, and, what is more, making the world repeat their names would totally be in the interests of the IMU and its allies," says Bekhzod Mirakhmedov, an independent political analyst and historian. The explosives found in the hotel were reportedly similar to those used in the 1999 car bombings.

Some security experts speculate that the source of the explosives could be Chechnya. Others say that such materials can be obtained relatively easily within Uzbekistan itself, or in a neighboring Central Asian country. Kuchin described ammonite "as an industrial explosive often used in mines for breaking ground." He added that workers in mines often have access to explosives, and that "it is often difficult to check if people have used all the explosives that they have taken from the storehouse."

Petty theft of explosives or their components from mines is very common, observers say. The same is true about Uzbekistan’s plants producing explosives, one of which is located in Tashkent Province. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan reportedly have relatively developed black markets for explosives, where prices for ammonite range between $60 and $140 per kilogram � the price depending in part on whether an intermediary is involved in the purchase. In July 2002, Kazakhstani police seized 30 kilograms of ammonite and 120 detonators. Nevertheless, an observer contends that the black market for explosives continues to operate. Smugglers allied with corrupt border guards reportedly can easily overcome frontier controls.

Sneaking explosives onto a construction site would also appear to be relatively easy � at least before the reputed discovery of the explosives at the hotel. Turkish companies awarded multi-million hotel reconstruction contracts were given very limited time constraints, leading to hastily assembled, and sometimes disorderly, work crews. Once, several days before the incident, a EurasiaNet correspondent entered one of the reconstruction sites and walked though the whole site without being stopped or even paid any attention to. Many people working at the reconstruction sites are odd-jobbers, mostly from the impoverished but deeply religious Ferghana Valley. The Ferghana Valley has long been a fertile recruiting ground for radical Islamic groups, like the nonviolent Hizb-ut-Tahrir. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives].

While the State Department advisory holds until October 1, US Ambassador John Herbst told Uzbekistani television on April 13 that "people have to make up their own minds, but I believe that the United States will be fully represented here for the conference."

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