Armenian and Azerbaijani diplomats, along with the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, gathered in London on April 15 to probe for a breakthrough in the stalemated Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks. A recent visit to the conflict zone in an around Karabakh indicated that even if officials make progress towards a negotiated settlement, selling any peace deal to local inhabitants and soldiers on both sides could prove difficult.
The London gathering on Karabakh sought to advance new peace proposals prepared by the Minsk Group, which comprises representatives from the United States, Russia and France, and is charged with overseeing the peace process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Discussions reportedly focused on laying the groundwork for a meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents, envisioned for May. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Prior to the meeting, the Minsk group co-chairs issued a statement that urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to show greater restraint. It specifically warned that a recent increase in armed clashes along the "contact line" were "causing needless loss of life and jeopardizing the cease-fire."
The statement went on to criticize recent comments made by officials about the possible resumption of full-scale armed operations. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan should "recognize that a renewal of hostilities cannot provide a lasting solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but would be disastrous for the population of both countries, resulting in loss of life, more destruction, additional refugees and displaced persons, and enormous financial costs."
The mood among those in the conflict zone remains hostile, indicating that both Armenians and Azerbaijanis are not yet able to move on. For many, it is as if the horrors of the conflict's deadliest phase occurred yesterday -- and not over a decade ago.
Armin and Savash are gentle teenagers with dark innocent eyes. Had they not worn camouflage fatigues, it would have been easy to mistake them for high school students. In fact, they are soldiers in the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army -- the ethnic Armenian force that secured the enclave's de facto independence during fighting from 1992-94.
Armin and Savash, both 19, have lived most of their lives on a war-footing, identifying Azeris only as the enemy. During a recent interview in Stepanakert, the Karabakh capital, both said that they could not recall ever having had a conversation with an Azeri. And neither seemed curious to do so. "What is there to talk about with people like that?" said Savash, referring to Azeris.
The armed conflict displaced hundreds of thousands of Armenians and Azeris, and finding a formula for the return of the dispossessed is a major dilemma for peace negotiators. When asked if they could ever envision a day when Azeris could return to territory currently occupied by Armenian military units, both Armin and Savash seemed skeptical. Like many soldiers and veterans interviewed on both sides of the Karabakh front-line, Armin chose not to answer my question about returns directly. Instead, he focused on perceived grievances against the Azerbaijani military's behavior during the conflict.
"The Azerbaijanis bombed the city from Shusha," Armin urged, pointing toward a town on a nearby hill. "They destroyed the whole town [Stepanakert]. All of Azatamartikneri Street was leveled, but we rebuilt it. People had to hide from the bombs in the basement without heat or light."
"We can't live with them, and we can't mix with them either because the Armenians are at threat of disappearing," Armin said. "We have to protect our culture and our land."
Karabakh is equally dear to most Azeris, so much so that an increasing number seem to be growing tired of the prolonged stalemate in negotiations, and appears willing to again resort to force. Those Azeris agitating for a new military campaign tend to look past the fact that Armenian forces routed the Azerbaijani military in the early 1990s.
Fikrat, a mustachioed man with cool blue eyes, served in the Azerbaijani military in 1992 when its fighting capability collapsed, in part due to political turmoil in Baku. He recalled that an Armenian offensive quickly drove Azerbaijani forces out of Karabakh, adding that at one point the front line ran near his home village Mahmudlu. As artillery shells fell on a house nearby, Fikrat's family fled eastward. The mental scars from the experience still seem fresh, as Fikrat's voice filled with bitterness as he spoke. "The Armenians had planes and heavy weapons when we only had rifles. When the line broke, we were told to go home to guard our villages," he said.
Fikrat's brother Heidar now serves as an officer in the Azerbaijani Army in the border town of Qazakh where 2004 violence left at least one Armenian officer dead. Declining to comment candidly while in uniform, Heidar simply echoed the widely held view that a peaceful resolution with Karabakh Armenian rebels would be nice, but that the use of force could be justified in an attempt to restore Azerbaijani authority in Karabakh. On the return of ethnic Armenians to areas of Azerbaijan, both Fikrat and Heidar would not give a clear answer.
In and around Khojali -- where Armenian forces reportedly massacred hundreds of Azeri civilians in February, 1992 the scene remains one of desolation, with no buildings remaining intact. "Azerbaijanis can't return," Gagik, a weary Karabakh veteran, told me. "Why do you think they'd want to? There's nothing here for them."
Editor's note:
Daniel J Gerstle was a 2004 Summer Research Fellow for Columbia Universitys Center for International Conflict Resolution covering the Caucasus and Central Asia.
