Constitutional Referendum Adds New Twist to Armenian Political Standoff

Armenians are preparing to vote May 25 on sweeping changes to the country's post-Soviet constitution in a referendum that is set to coincide with parliamentary elections. Analysts say both votes are shaping up as a continuation of a political struggle that was sparked by the March presidential election, which was marred by allegations of widespread fraud.

President Robert Kocharian, a strong backer of the effort to amend the constitution, says the changes would curtail presidential power and strengthen the authority of other government branches – thereby harmonizing Armenia's political system with Council of Europe standards.

His political opponents, however, claim the opposite. They assert that Kocharian, who won reelection in March amid allegations of vote rigging, would enhance his powers, while sacrificing only largely ceremonial prerogatives, if the amendments are approved. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The referendum, along with the parliamentary elections, thus represents another major political test for Kocharian, as well as an opportunity for the opposition to step up its attacks on the administration. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

More than 80 percent of the current constitution's 114 articles are expected to be amended in one way or another. Political observers suggest that many amendments, formulated in complicated legal jargon, may prove difficult to comprehend for many Armenians. Thus, a large number of voters are expected to be guided in the referendum by their political allegiances, local political analysts say.

The constitutional package is the product of several years' work by a team of government-appointed lawyers, who advise Kocharian. The current Armenian constitution, enacted in 1995 under then-President Levon Ter-Petrosian, has been widely criticized for granting disproportionate powers to the presidency, while failing to build a sufficient system of checks and balances.

The Armenian basic law is, in effect, based on a distorted version of the so-called French constitutional model prevalent across the ex-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States, including Russia. That constitutional order places the president above the executive, legislative and judicial authorities.

Constitutional reform was a key campaign pledge of Kocharian during his first presidential run in 1998. But work on the draft amendments subsequently moved forward at a snail's pace. The only legal method for making constitutional changes is by nationwide referendum.

The most recent delay occurred a year ago when Kocharian's constitutional package faced unexpectedly strong resistance in the Armenian parliament. Opposition factions came up with their own draft, which would have turned the country into a parliamentary republic. Although the opposition initiative was defeated by the pro-presidential majority, it dragged out parliament debate, forcing Kocharian to drop plans to hold the referendum in the fall of 2002.

The 48-year-old Armenian leader, still grappling with the political fallout from the disputed presidential election, set the referendum date on April 8 after his draft amendments were rubber-stamped by the outgoing National Assembly. "Success of constitutional reform is extremely important for our country in terms of both domestic and external developments," he wrote to Parliament Speaker Armen Khachatrian.

The Armenian opposition, which refuses to recognize Kocharian's disputed electoral victory, says the president lacks the popular mandate to initiate any constitutional change. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Artarutiun (Justice) alliance, built recently around defeated presidential candidate Stepan Demirchian, has said it will urge its supporters to vote against the amendments. "The adoption of these amendments would only create an illusion of reform," said one of Artarutiun leaders, Shavarsh Kocharian (no relation to the president).

A thorough examination of the proposed constitutional amendments indicates that Kocharian is reluctant to relinquish authority. He had initially proposed giving parliament the right to appoint or reject a prime minister nominated by the president. (The existing constitution allows the president to name and dismiss premiers at will.) But that was removed from the constitutional package shortly after the March 5 presidential run-off vote.

Kocharian allies argue that if Armenians say yes to the amendments, the president will not have the authority to veto government decisions. In addition, the proposed amendments would permit the president to disband the parliament only under five specific scenarios involving legislative "inactivity," and not at his sole discretion, as is the case presently.

Critics counter that the dissolution criteria are vague and leave room for differing interpretations. The opposition also argues that the proposed changes would give Kocharian additional powers. He would, for example, be allowed to fire the defense and foreign ministers without the prime minister's consent. He would additionally have greater powers to appoint top army and interior troop commanders.

Other amendments sought by Kocharian are less controversial. They stipulate among other things additional safeguards against human rights abuses, allow non-citizens to vote in local elections, give foreign nationals the right to own land in Armenia and abolish a ban on dual citizenship. The worldwide Armenian Diaspora has long pushed for the latter.

Under Armenian law, constitutional amendments need the backing of a simple majority of those taking part in the referendum. However, the referendum will be deemed invalid if voter turnout is below 50 percent. In addition, amendments have to be endorsed by at least one third of the country's 2.4 million eligible voters.

The previous 1995 constitutional referendum was tainted by fraud allegations, marking the start of post-Soviet Armenia's troubled electoral history. Many political observers now wonder whether the approaching referendum will be able to settle the turbulent domestic political mood. Armenian authorities' handling of the March presidential election does not generate cause for optimism, some observers contend.