GUUAM, the geopolitical bloc that groups Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova, is reeling, and appears close to expiring. Participating nations appear to lack the political will to give the project a definitive shape. A GUUAM Parliamentary Conference, originally scheduled for January 2001 in Baku, has yet to convene. Meanwhile, a summit of GUUAM heads of state, slated for early March in Kiev, has been postponed indefinitely, reportedly at the request of Azerbaijan and Moldova. The inability of the participant states to work out a strategic framework for the organization represents a significant geopolitical gain for Russia, which stands to remain a largely unchallenged regional political and economic force.
GUUAM's organizational delays have been largely attributed to a "crowded working schedule" of Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev, who is struggling to find a political arrangement with Armenia on Nagorno-Karabakh's status. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Another factor reportedly has been the parliamentary elections in Moldova. However, a deeper reason for GUUAM's developmental difficulties is likely connected to persistent Russian opposition to the project.
In 1997, the leaders of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova (Uzbekistan joined the group later, in April 1999) met in Strasbourg, under the auspices of the Council of Europe, and decided to form a new organization with the stated aims of counterbalancing Russia's political dominance in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and lessening members' energy dependence on Russia by securing alternative sources of oil and gas deliveries.
As stated in an analytic memo penned by Sergei Pirozhkov and Boris Parakhonsky two strategists of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council two desires governed the emergence of GUUAM: "The striving of the newly independent states to get rid of the
Editor's note:
Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was a Regional Exchange Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC, 1995; Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1988-1997; and Kiev correspondent for the Paris-based weekly Russkaya mysl, 1998-2000.
