EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Cyprus EU Membership Drive Complicates Turkey’s Accession Effort

EURASIA INSIGHT

CYPRUS EU MEMBERSHIP DRIVE COMPLICATES TURKEY’S ACCESSION EFFORT
Kaan Nazli 4/18/03
A EurasiaNet Commentary

In a resounding endorsement of enlargement, the European Parliament recently ratified the EU accession treaties of Cyprus and nine other applicants by an overwhelming majority. The move is likely to complicate Turkey’s own effort to gain entry into the European Union.

Given the April 16 European Parliament ratification, the Cypriot government aims to complete of the accession process by May 2004. Cyprus’ EU membership drive is likely to complicate Turkey’s own accession effort. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. With the signing of the Accession Treaty, any future Cyprus settlement now needs to conform to EU standards. That means that the Turkish Cypriot stance on a bi-zonal and bi-communal settlement envisioning a strong Turkish Cypriot partner state, preserving current close economic and trade ties with Turkey, will probably need to be toned down if a settlement is to be reached.

Adding to Turkey’s diplomatic challenge was a UN Security Council decision on 15 April to hand over the leading role in settling the Cyprus issue to the EU. A UN report placed primary blame for the existing stalemate in peace talks on Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas. The report also pointed to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s plan as a viable platform for working out a future solution.

Denktas, along with conservatives in Turkey’s political establishment, has expressed dissatisfaction with Annan’s plan. For more disadvantageous terms for Turkey could be in store now that the Cypriot government, led by President Tasos Papadopulos, appears to have gained the upper hand in negotiations after securing EU membership.

Greek Cypriot accession to the EU could trigger continued demonstrations in northern Cyprus against Denktas’s seemingly intransigent line and accelerate Turkish Cypriot immigration to the southern part of the island. With nothing to suggest the imminent end to the current economic blockade on northern Cyprus, dissent among Turkish Cypriots with regard to their current administration, polarization of the population as "pro-settlement Turkish Cypriots" and "anti-settlement Turkish Cypriots plus mainland settlers" may push the north to an unsustainable situation.

Denktas may face increased opposition and might be forced to step down before his term ends in 2005, as the majority of the Turkish Cypriot electorate appear to be aligned with the opposition Republican Turkish Party (CTP), led by Mehmet Ali Talat. The CTP will likely gain ground in the upcoming December parliamentary election, increasing optimism that there could be a serious push for a Cyprus settlement in early 2004.

Turkey’s continued military presence in Cyprus is likely to become an increasing thorn in the side of Turkish-EU relations, as Turkey will be viewed as a country occupying a part of EU territory. The Turkish government may bow to EU pressure in order to keep efforts to resolve the Cyprus issue on track. It remains to be seen, however, whether the government can persuade conservatives, traditionally supportive of the annexation of northern Cyprus, to go along. The resolution of the Cyprus question in the near term appears unlikely in the absence of clear incentives for both sides to make politically costly concessions.

Editor’s Note: Kaan Nazli is a research Analyst at Eurasia Group.

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