EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - US Military Base in Kyrgyzstan Comes into Play as Domestic Political Confrontation Brews

EURASIA INSIGHT

US MILITARY BASE IN KYRGYZSTAN COMES INTO PLAY AS DOMESTIC POLITICAL CONFRONTATION BREWS
4/20/06

As President Kurmanbek Bakiyev prepares to visit Moscow, there are increasing signs that Kyrgyzstan is moving away from a foreign policy that balances Russian and US geopolitical interests. Bakiyev, facing increasingly determined opposition in Bishkek, appears prepared to move firmly into the Kremlin’s camp in an attempt to reinforce his domestic political position.

Bakiyev’s Moscow trip on April 24-25 will feature a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The hastily arranged visit, Bakiyev’s first foreign foray since becoming president, appears connected with a brewing confrontation in Kyrgyzstan pitting the president against a coalition of opposition politicians and non-governmental organization activists. Presidential critics have planned a mass demonstration in Bishkek for April 29, and have threatened to launch a prolonged protest initiative unless Bakiyev takes immediate measures to curb organized crime and corruption in Kyrgyzstan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Talks on April 19 between the president and his opponents failed to defuse the brewing crisis, and instead appeared to add to the acrimonious atmosphere. Commenting on the discussions, an opposition coalition leader, MP Melis Eshimkanov, complained to local journalists that "we thought our demands would be understood, but he [Bakiyev] seems not to know reality." Bakiyev, meanwhile, castigated his opponents, saying he would not allow protests to upset the executive branch’s ability to function. "Holding these various rallies and pickets will not contribute to attracting investment," the AKIpress news agency quoted Bakiyev as saying.

The embattled Kyrgyz leader is expected to seek Russian political support in order to blunt the pressure being exerted on him by his domestic political foes. In return, political analysts in Bishkek believe, Putin is expected to press Bakiyev to choose Russia as Kyrgyzstan’s chief security guarantor. Kyrgyzstan is home to both a US and a Russian military base. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Since Uzbek leader Islam Karimov expelled US forces from an air base in Uzbekistan last summer, Moscow has not concealed a desire to push the Americans out of their sole remaining strategic foothold in Central Asia � the Ganci air base at Manas, outside the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Bakiyev helped fuel such speculation when, during a televised interview April 19, he demanded a 100-fold increase in the rent that the United States pays for access to the Ganci base, which is used primarily to support ongoing military operations in Afghanistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. According to the president, current American annual payments for the base total roughly $2 million, and the presidential administration is seeking an increase in rent to just over $200 million per year.

The Kyrgyz president threatened to cancel the Ganci base lease if the two sides could not agree on new terms by June 1. Bakiyev said he first raised the rent issue during a visit to Bishkek by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in July 2005. He expressed annoyance that the United States had yet to respond to his repeated overtures, claiming that US silence "causes concern for the Kyrgyz public due to the lack of clarity on this [base] issue."

Both the US Embassy in Bishkek and the Pentagon have expressed a desire for US forces to remain in Kyrgyzstan, and to negotiate a solution to the rent dispute.

"The United States and Kyrgyzstan have agreed to examine the issue of compensation for use of the airbase," Pentagon spokesman Lt. Commander L. Joe Carpenter said in written answers to questions posed by EurasiaNet. "The US side is committed to an expeditious conclusion of these negotiations for the purpose of determining fair market value for the goods and service used by the base. Successful conclusion of these talks will require determination and flexibility by both sides."

Carpenter said the existing leasing agreement stipulates that either side can terminate the agreement with six months notice. He stressed that the United States does not currently pay rent to the Kyrgyz government for use of the base itself. "The United States does have some commercial lease arrangements for use of various privately owned facilities and land areas in the vicinity of Manas. The rent paid under such arrangements is based on an assessment of the fair market rental value of the property, and is a matter between the United States and the property owner," Carpenter stated.

Bakiyev has previously stated that "US and Coalition forces are welcome at Manas until operations in Afghanistan are complete," Carpenter noted. He went on to say that Manas base operations would continue "only with the support of the Kyrgyz government and the Kyrgyz people."

Bishkek political analyst Alexander Knyazev characterized the Manas base as "Bakiyev’s trump card." If Washington balks at meeting Bakiyev’s terms, he could cancel the lease agreement and "obtain economic preferences and benefits from Moscow," Knyazev said.

Beyond the president’s base comments, there are several indicators that Kyrgyzstan is tilting toward Russia. For example, following talks with Kyrgyz officials in Bishkek, Sergei Kiriyenko, a former Russian prime minister and current head of Russia’s Atomic Energy Agency, predicted that bilateral trade would double within the next few years, the Itar-Tass news agency reported April 20. Kiriyenko said that Russian-Kyrgyz trade had risen 40 percent during the first quarter of 2006, compared with the same period during the previous year, which was a time of tremendous upheaval in Kyrgyzstan. Bilateral trade turnover in 2005 amounted to just over $542 million, Kiriyenko said.

In addition, on April 18, the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry reacted vehemently to comments made the previous day by US Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch suggesting that Kyrgyzstan join the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, a program managed by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund that helps poor countries manage their global debt. In late March, Prime Minister Feliks Kulov said in a letter to IMF and World Bank officials that Kyrgyzstan was interested in joining the program. Despite this, Itar-Tass quoted a Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry statement as saying Yovanovitch’s comments went "beyond the scope of diplomatic relations."

"The way the ambassador chose to express her view on this issue is not the best one," the statement said. "Any public statement made by foreign diplomats on domestic political and economic issues is taken as interference in internal affairs and certain pressure on the Kyrgyz leadership."

Russian ambassador in Bishkek Yevgeniy Shmagin heaped additional criticism on Yovanovitch when he told AKIpress that "unlike some of my counterparts in the diplomatic corps, I would not comment on this or that activity in Kyrgyzstan."

In commenting on the HIPC debate on April 19, Bakiyev said that Kyrgyzstan was shouldering an international debt of roughly $2 billion, AKIpress reported. He indicated that Kyrgyzstan would reject joining the HIPC group if "conditions are humiliating for Kyrgyzstan," adding that the debate on the merits of membership was on-going. "People are working, all alternatives are being discussed," AKIpress reported Bakiyev as saying.

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