Turkish Troop Deployment in Iraq Now "Out of the Question"

As Iraq's security situation continues to erode, the US-led occupation force appears in urgent need of reinforcements. Turkey at one point in late 2003 was ready to contribute troops to bolster the thinly stretched Iraqi stabilization force. However, Turkish officials now say the deployment of troops in Iraq is "out of the question."

In the latest spasm of violence in Iraq, suicide bombings in the southern port of Basra on April 21 killed at least 68 people, a large number of them school children. Meanwhile, the uprising by Shi'a and Suuni militia groups against American-led occupation forces continues to simmer. The escalating violence has already prompted some members of the US-led coalition – including Spain, Honduras and the Dominican Republic – to announce their intention to withdraw their troops from Iraq.

The evident cracks in the "coalition of the willing" are increasing the strain on the 135,000 US troops in Iraq. According to an April 21 report in the New York Times, the US Defense Department has developed a contingency plan to dispatch fresh American troops to Iraq. The Pentagon reportedly felt the need to formulate the plan because of the lack of enthusiasm among US allies to reinforce Iraq's stabilization force.

During the autumn of 2003, Turkey agreed to send 10,000 troops to Iraq to help promote stabilization. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the last moment, however, the deployment plans fell apart, mainly because of opposition from members of Iraq's provisional governing council, in particular its Kurdish members. At the time, the United States supported the decision to cancel the deployment, citing "Iraqi sensitivities."

In recent weeks, some Bush administration backers have suggested reviving the Turkish deployment plan. However, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul acted swiftly to shoot down any hopes that Turkish troops would be sent to Iraq. "We previously proposed sending troops to tackle the spreading [violence in Iraq],"Gul told reporters in Ankara on April 8. "We received parliamentary approval for deployment, but this was at the time [in late 2003] seen as inappropriate. Now, sending Turkish troops is out of the question."

During a state visit to Japan, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed Gul's statement, adding that Turkey's military role regarding Iraq would be limited to making Turkish bases available to US forces.

In his comments to reporters, Gul implied that an American lack of understanding of socio-political conditions in Iraq was a contributing factor in the violence. "We have said from the beginning that things may get messy if the culture and the structure of the region were not well known," Gul said. "For this reason, we hope our suggestions, which we have been making from the start, are taken into consideration."

Turkey's political establishment is presently preoccupied with questions relating to the country's European Union membership drive, in particular the political future of the divided island of Cyprus. Nevertheless, Turkish leaders are growing increasingly uneasy about the prospect of Iraqi violence spreading to Turkey's borders. Gul described the recent violence in Iraq as "a very dangerous escalation."

Just six months ago, antagonism between Turks and the Kurds of northern Iraq proved to be an insurmountable obstacle to the Turkish troop deployment. Since then, the level of hostility between Turks and Kurds has been significantly reduced. In Ankara, policy makers have come to view the Kurdish-dominated territory in northern Iraq as a critical buffer zone, separating Turkey from the tumult in the Suuni and Shi'a areas of Iraq. Under US occupation, Kurdish-dominated areas of Iraq have emerged as pockets of relative tranquillity.

Despite the thaw in relations, Kurdish leaders indicate that they would continue to oppose a Turkish military presence in Iraq. Barham Salih, a leader of the self-proclaimed regional government of Kurdistan, said during an on-line chat hosted by the Washington Post on April 9 that a majority of Iraqis opposed any military involvement in the country by a neighboring state. At the same time, Salih praised the efforts of Turkish business to forge trade ties with Kurdish counterparts, describing such commerce as a "good foundation upon which good neighborly relations can be maintained."