Georgia Ponders Impact of Nino Burjanadze's Election Withdrawal

Georgian politicians and pundits remain divided over the impact of Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze's April 21 withdrawal from Georgia's upcoming parliamentary elections. While some analysts question whether her decision will influence the governing United National Movement's standing in the polls, some opposition groups are trying to seize a political opportunity.

Leaders within the National Movement launched an aggressive public relations effort to dispel any notion of an internal party crisis. Prior to her unexpected announcement, the 43-year-old parliamentary speaker had been slotted to hold the top position on the party's election list, and to retain her speaker's chair after the May 21 election, provided the National Movement retained its majority.

During a late night television talk show on pro-government Rustavi-2, Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava, a key Saakashvili ally, sought to dispel speculation that Burjanadze's action signified a schism within the governing party. Ugulava noted that several Burjanadze protégés – including Foreign Minister Davit Bakradze – remain on the National Movement list. Bakradze now occupies the party's top position on the list and will be named parliamentary speaker if the National Movement retains its majority, Ugulava said.

Georgian newspapers reported on April 22 that Burjanadze decided to drop out of the race after President Mikheil Saakashvili, the National Movement's leader, changed his mind about the number of her "people" who would be placed at the top of the party's list.

Party lists are traditionally a source of tension during Georgian elections since they determine who will get into parliament based on the proportional vote for an individual party. This year, the party list order is particularly important, given that there are just 75 seats allotted to the proportional vote, out of a total of 150. Prior to an overhaul of the election format, parliament contained 160 seats, elected on a party-list basis. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Although the National Movement has still not publicized its complete party list, Mayor Ugulava and Georgian television reports have already named some of the leading figures on the list. Among them are State Minister for Refugees and Accommodation Kote Subeliani (#2), Environment Minister Zaza Gamtsemlidze (#4), Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Mikheil Machavariani (#8), longtime parliamentarians Givi Targamadze (#12) and Gigi Tsereteli (#10), presidential administration head Giorgi Gabashvili (#11), and Davit Darchiashvili, head of the Open Society Georgia Foundation (#7). [EurasiaNet.org and the Open Society Georgia Foundation are both part of the Soros Foundations Network, although they operate as distinct entities].

While Burjanadze has stressed that her departure could "take place in any normal democratic country," some Tbilisi analysts note that her sudden announcement leaves little doubt that conflict is dividing the National Movement.

Her exit from politics caps a 13-year career in parliament and seven years as its speaker, including two terms as Georgia's acting president.

"The conflict was very messy