EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Georgia Ponders Impact of Nino Burjanadze's Election Withdrawal

EURASIA INSIGHT

GEORGIA PONDERS IMPACT OF NINO BURJANADZE’S ELECTION WITHDRAWAL
Molly Corso 4/22/08

Georgian politicians and pundits remain divided over the impact of Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze’s April 21 withdrawal from Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections. While some analysts question whether her decision will influence the governing United National Movement’s standing in the polls, some opposition groups are trying to seize a political opportunity.

Leaders within the National Movement launched an aggressive public relations effort to dispel any notion of an internal party crisis. Prior to her unexpected announcement, the 43-year-old parliamentary speaker had been slotted to hold the top position on the party’s election list, and to retain her speaker’s chair after the May 21 election, provided the National Movement retained its majority.

During a late night television talk show on pro-government Rustavi-2, Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava, a key Saakashvili ally, sought to dispel speculation that Burjanadze’s action signified a schism within the governing party. Ugulava noted that several Burjanadze protégés � including Foreign Minister Davit Bakradze � remain on the National Movement list. Bakradze now occupies the party’s top position on the list and will be named parliamentary speaker if the National Movement retains its majority, Ugulava said.

Georgian newspapers reported on April 22 that Burjanadze decided to drop out of the race after President Mikheil Saakashvili, the National Movement’s leader, changed his mind about the number of her "people" who would be placed at the top of the party’s list.

Party lists are traditionally a source of tension during Georgian elections since they determine who will get into parliament based on the proportional vote for an individual party. This year, the party list order is particularly important, given that there are just 75 seats allotted to the proportional vote, out of a total of 150. Prior to an overhaul of the election format, parliament contained 160 seats, elected on a party-list basis. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Although the National Movement has still not publicized its complete party list, Mayor Ugulava and Georgian television reports have already named some of the leading figures on the list. Among them are State Minister for Refugees and Accommodation Kote Subeliani (#2), Environment Minister Zaza Gamtsemlidze (#4), Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Mikheil Machavariani (#8), longtime parliamentarians Givi Targamadze (#12) and Gigi Tsereteli (#10), presidential administration head Giorgi Gabashvili (#11), and Davit Darchiashvili, head of the Open Society Georgia Foundation (#7). [EurasiaNet.org and the Open Society Georgia Foundation are both part of the Soros Foundations Network, although they operate as distinct entities].

While Burjanadze has stressed that her departure could "take place in any normal democratic country," some Tbilisi analysts note that her sudden announcement leaves little doubt that conflict is dividing the National Movement.

Her exit from politics caps a 13-year career in parliament and seven years as its speaker, including two terms as Georgia’s acting president.

"The conflict was very messy � inside the National Movement otherwise there would have been more consensus among the party leaders," said Giorgi Khutsishvili, a founder of the International Center on Conflict and Negotiation. "It looks like a very cruel battle ahead. There will be [a] struggle inside the National Movement."

But Levan Ramishvili, the head of the Liberty Institute, a pro-Saakashvili think tank, stresses that election-season tension and conflict within parties like the National Movement are common. The party itself was created as a coalition of several different parties after the 2003 Rose Revolution. "There was always some kind of tension between various camps and factions within the National Movement," Ramishvili said. "I think for them it [was] an effort to solve all the possible problems now and after the election be more focused on a concrete agenda."

Ramishvili believes Burjanadze’s departure will have little or no impact on the party, though forecasts that it will emerge from the elections better organized and ready to tackle outstanding reforms.

Opposition parties are also divided about the political repercussions of her exit from politics.

Unlike Ramishvili, opposition Republican Party head Davit Usupashvili believes that the parliamentary speaker’s decision will make the National Movement even more dependent on its leader, President Saakashvili.

While Usupashvili contends that Burjanadze had been losing influence in the party since February � when she led unsuccessful negotiations between the opposition and government � her departure over the party list, he contended, suggests that Saakashvili does not want to share power. Without the balancing force of Burjanadze, he added, the National Movement could become "more radicalized." Many opposition members in the past have seen Burjanadze as a political figure more open to dialogue than President Saakashvili.

Meanwhile, the nine-party united opposition bloc headed by former presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze is attempting to use Burjanadze’s sudden departure as a means to inflict political damage on the governing party.

Kakha Kukava, a bloc leader from the Conservative Party, charged that Burjanadze’s announcement had prevented the National Movement from delivering its party list to the Central Election Commission in time for the April 21 deadline specified by law. Burjanadze’s televised announcement about her withdrawal from the election coincided with the CEC’s 6pm deadline.

In comments to the press, Kukava accused the governing party of attempting to evade the law by submitting a partial list of candidates for the deadline, and then scrambling to create a final, post-Burjanadze list late at night. He has not provided sources for his allegations.

Widely considered the most powerful woman in the male-dominated world of Georgian politics, Burjanadze, though, may not be ready to bow out of Georgia’s national scene completely, noted political analyst Khutsishvili. "I don’t think this is the end of her career," he said. "She will probably play her own game, but it will be a big game."

Editor�s Note: Molly Corso is a freelance reporter based in Tbilisi.

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