Armenia: Many in Yerevan are Wary of the "Road Map" for Normalizing Ties with Turkey

The April 23 announcement of "tangible progress" in normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey has sparked deep concern in Yerevan that the Armenian government has made "dangerous" compromises on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks and on efforts to secure international recognition of an Ottoman Turk massacre of ethnic Armenians as genocide.

The declaration, released by the Turkish, Armenian and Swiss governments, only affirms that Ankara and Yerevan have "achieved tangible progress and mutual understanding in this process and they have agreed on a comprehensive framework for the normalization of their bilateral relations in a mutually satisfactory manner." Switzerland acted as mediator for the talks.

But Turkey's statements that restoring ties with Armenia is contingent on first resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute with Turkish ally Azerbaijan prompt many to fear that more exists to the framework agreement than meets the eye. What many Armenians see as Ankara's ongoing attempts to block recognition of the 1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide has furthered that concern.

The nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutiun (ARFD), part of Armenia's governing coalition, has already announced that it is considering leaving the coalition as a result of this agreement. "The appearance of this document is a blow against the interests of Armenia and Armenians," the party's April 23 statement said. "Taking into consideration that the process implies a negative change in the foreign policies of Armenia, the ARFD will consider the expediency of its participation in the coalition within the coming days."

Leaders of the governing coalition chief member, the Republican Party of Armenia, say that they do not understand the ARFD's logic. "Dashnaktsutiun's statement is not clear," commented party spokesperson Eduard Sharmazanov "However, each political force has to decide what it does for itself. We abstain from making harsh statements because our partners have not made their decision yet."

The lack of public information about the so-called "road map" for the normalization of ties with Turkey is helping to fuel misgivings among Armenians. "So long as the Turkish prime minister and the president regularly name conditions, and so long as the details of the statement are kept unpublicized, the present situation is presumably not so optimistic for Armenia," commented independent political analyst Andranik Tevanian.

The country's largest opposition coalition agrees. "I do not make any optimistic prognosis in this regard and believe the Turks used the weakness of the Armenian authorities and forced a document that contains dangerous perspectives for Armenia," Vladimir Karapetian, foreign policy spokesperson for former president Levon Ter-Petrosian's Armenian National Congress, told EurasiaNet.

Richard Kirakosian, director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, calls the joint statement "one of the most serious strategic lapses so far made by the Armenian authorities."

Analysts like Kirakosian claim that the timing of the "road map" announcement - on the eve of Armenia's April 24 commemoration of the massacres - was inappropriate since reconciliation with Turkey may now delay the term "genocide" ever being applied to the event. The Armenian government has not set such recognition as a condition for reconciliation.

"I congratulate Turkey!" scoffed another political analyst, Yervand Bozoian, claiming that Armenia has fallen into "the trap" allegedly set by Turkey appearing in what Bozoian characterizes as the role of "a mediator" between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"[I] am struck by the mediocrity of Armenia's step on the eve of the remembrance day. It is a blow to the movement" for genocide recognition, he said.

Republican Party spokesperson Sharmazanov, however, asserts that there is no cause for alarm. Armenia' official position that ties should be restored without conditions on either side remains unchanged, he said. "We see the settlement of these relations without conditions alone," Sharmazanov said, adding that the April 23 road-map statement should only be "welcomed."

Azerbaijan, for its part, has given little sign in its official statements that it welcomes the progress made between Turkey and Armenia. Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Elxan Poluxov told the Turan news agency on April 23 that while "[i]t is a state's sovereign right to establish ties with other countries," Baku "considers that the process of normalizing ties between Armenia and Turkey must go in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian occupying forces from the territory of Azerbaijan."

Meanwhile, Russia, like other international mediators in the Karabakh conflict, is resolutely expressing optimism about a potential breakthrough in the Karabakh talks.

"I believe we are on the right way in general," Russian President Dmitri Medvedev told journalists after a roughly two-hour-long discussion with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan on April 23. "My contacts confirm the sides are ready to move in a constructive direction to solve this complicated issue."

Karabakh's status, however, remains the ultimate sticking point. And on that front, little appears to have changed. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev maintains that Baku will never relinquish its claim to the territory, while President Sargsyan, who once served as the breakaway region's chief military commander, affirms that Azerbaijan has lost all right to call Karabakh its own.