Kyrgyzstan’s Presidential Election Comes into Focus as Kulov Declares Candidacy

Kyrgyzstan's presidential election is shaping up as a regional contest following Feliks Kulov's formal announcement April 25 that he will seek the presidency. Kulov, viewed by some analysts as a representative of northern Kyrgyz interests, is seen as an early co-favorite to win the election, scheduled for July 10. Interim President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the other leading contender, has southern political roots.

Kulov's presidential bid was made possible by recent Kyrgyzstani Supreme Court decisions to overturn criminal convictions relating to abuse-of-power charges. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In the days immediately after Askar Akayev's administration collapsed on March 24, Kulov briefly served as the provisional government's security coordinator and tacitly endorsed Bakiyev's leadership, saying in an interview that voters would "not go wrong" if they voted for the interim president. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In retrospect, Kulov's decision to resign as security coordinator after just days in office seems like a shrewd political move, as the provisional government has quickly established itself as a lightning rod for controversy. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Now, just over a month since Akayev's ouster, Kulov's view of Bakiyev's provisional government has undergone a radical change. In announcing his candidacy, Kulov stated that his decision to run was rooted in his desire to "stabilize the situation in the country" and "normalize the work of state institutions."

While the presidential election campaign seems sure to have an undertone of regional rivalry, Kulov is attempting to cast himself as a conciliator. During his April 25 news conference, he voiced concern about rising inter-ethnic and regional discord, saying that he would seek to stem the "outflow of the Russian-speaking population" and promote harmony among residents of the North and South. Kulov suggested that all presidential candidates sign a statement pledging to honor the official election results and to refrain from taking any step that could stoke inter-regional tension. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Kulov was long considered Akayev's most powerful political foe, and many analysts believe that his jailing in early 2001 was motivated by the president's desire to neutralize a dangerous rival. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Now, Kulov and Bakiyev seem set on a collision course for the presidency. While there are other declared candidates, none are expected to put pressure on Kulov and Bakiyev.

Kulov and Bakiyev separately confirmed that they recently held private discussions aimed at a reaching power-sharing accord. According to Kulov, they discussed an arrangement in which the winner of the presidential vote would name the second-place finisher prime minister. Bakiyev ultimately rejected that variant, offering instead to create a unified ticket in which he would run as president while guaranteeing to name Kulov as premier. Kulov considered the proposal for several days before rejecting it. At his April 25 news conference, Kulov suggested that he would unilaterally stick to his original plan, pledging that if he wins the election he will appoint Bakiyev as prime minister.

In a television interview April 24, Bakiyev defended the provisional government's record, saying: "Thanks to the efforts of our government and local authorities we have been able to stabilize the political and social situation." He characterized his power-sharing dialogue with Kulov as "gentlemanly," adding that the two had agreed to wage a fair campaign "and not to take people into the streets and not to buy votes." At the same time, Bakiyev did not sound particularly confident that the gentleman's agreement would hold. "Time will tell," he said.

Kulov indicated that his political opponents are already carrying out a smear campaign against him. He specifically dismissed rumors that his candidacy was closely linked to Akayev. "I fought against that regime which Akayev established and I will not tolerate a repetition of it," Kulov stated. In an attempt to reassure voters, he vowed that he would serve only one term and then retire, adding that he would work to transform the country into a parliamentary republic.

Kulov also asserted that political enemies wanted to revive an investigation into alleged improprieties while he served in a variety political posts under Akayev in an attempt to undermine his presidential bid. Acting Prosecutor-General Azimbek Beknazarov, a prominent southern politician, recently indicated that the provisional government might launch its own probe into Kulov's official actions during the Akayev era. "It [an investigation] is carried out with the intent of discrediting me ahead of the presidential election," Kulov told a EurasiaNet correspondent. "You know these black PR techniques: it's all well known."

While Kulov has declared his candidacy, he still must clear one significant legal obstacle – demonstrating his proficiency in the Kyrgyz language. When he served as one of Akayev's top lieutenants in the late 1990s, Kulov appeared to have difficulty expressing himself in Kyrgyz. Akayev imposed a Kyrgyz language requirement in large measure to undermine a potential Kulov presidential challenge. Today, Kulov, who speaks primarily in Russian, vows that will pass the language test. "A president should know the state language," he said.

Bakiyev has taken steps to consolidate the support of southern politicians behind his candidacy. For instance, another declared presidential candidate from southern Kyrgyzstan, Adakhan Madumarov, abruptly announced that he was dropping out of the running. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Madumarov then accepted an appointment to the post of vice prime minister in Bakiyev's cabinet. Madumarov said his about-face was prompted by a need to "promote stability in the country."