Turkey and the United States to Develop “Common Strategic Vision”

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sought to reassure Turkish leaders during her April 25-26 visit to Ankara that deepening chaos in Iraq can be contained. Though still wary about developments in Iraq, Turkish leaders appear eager to encourage closer US-Turkish relations.

Turkey is concerned that militants of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) are using northern Iraq as a sanctuary and training ground for a renewed campaign to carve out areas in southeastern Turkey as a Kurdish homeland. Turkish military leaders recently announced that 40,000 troops would reinforce the estimated 250,000 soldiers already deployed in southeastern Turkey as a deterrent to PKK incursions from northern Iraq.

Turkish-American relations have been shaken by the Iraq imbroglio. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkish officials have worried that with Washington preoccupied with maintaining a tenuous sense of order in Baghdad, it is losing sight of other political dangers, including the PKK's resurgence. Gen. Hilmi Akin Zorlu, head of the General Staff's Planning and Principles Department, sought to refocus US attention on the Kurdish question when, at a March 29 economic conference in Washington, he characterized PKK containment efforts as "an important part of the global war on terrorism." On April 23, the military's chief of staff, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, underscored Turkey's security concerns when he announced that Ankara reserved the right to launch preventative raids into Iraq against Kurdish militants. On April 26, Ankara denied reports that Turkish troops were currently engaged in anti-PKK operations in northern Iraq.

During her visit to Ankara, Rice emphasized that the United States is committed to reducing the PKK threat. In addition, the US secretary of state reportedly sought Ankara's cooperation in efforts to stop Iran's nuclear program. [See related EurasiaNet story]. In a gesture demonstrating Ankara's desire to please the United States, Turkish officials postponed a visit by Iranian National Security Council chief Ali Larijani, who originally sought to travel to Turkey prior to Rice's trip but who now is expected to arrive in Ankara in early May, according to the Zaman news website. The Iranian IRNA agency reported that Ankara told Tehran that Larijani's arrival in advance of Rice would be "inappropriate."

Rice welcomed Ankara's support for US democratization efforts in the Middle East. "We have had no better ally and no stronger supporter of the efforts that we are all making to see a democratic Middle East," Rice said. "Turkey is a very good example that there is no conflict between Islam and democracy."

Turkish officials appeared to accept Rice's reassurances on the Kurdish issue, and leaders of the two countries pledged to rededicate themselves to strengthening bilateral relations. Toward that end, Rice and Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said that the two countries would formulate a "common strategic vision."

The Turkish daily Sabah reported that the document would determine concrete goals for bilateral relations, set a regular working calendar for increased political and military consultations, establish a coordination mechanism concerning Iraq, and facilitate an expansion of trade. "We have a common vision, common views, and common targets. We have decided to further strengthen these," Gul said at a joint press conference.

Some Turkish political observers expressed hope that the Rice visit would mark a turning point in US-Turkish relations. Columnist Mehmet Ali Birand of the daily Milliyet wrote April 26; "This week either a midway will be found in Turkish-American relations, or mutual bickering will increase."

Although their views on Iraq appear to be converging, Iran could prove a thorny issue for bilateral relations in the coming weeks. Ankara has no desire to become tangled in another potential conflict on its doorstep. Gul told journalists on April 4 that unspecified diplomatic options remained available in the ongoing attempt to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. At the same time, Gul stressed that Turkey did not want any of its neighbors to develop a nuclear weapon. "Iran must be transparent and must meet the expectations of the world," he stressed at his news conference with Rice. A point of tension between Ankara and Washington could arise if the Iran issue ends up in the United Nations Security Council, which could impose economic sanctions. Turkish officials worry that Turkish trade could take a severe hit through the imposition of strict sanctions that attempt to economically isolate Iran. Roughly 75,000 Turkish trucks transit through Iran every year on their way to Central Asia and beyond, according to some Turkish estimates. Accordingly, Ankara favors softer sanctions than does Washington.

Now that US and Turkish officials have taken steps to put ties on a sounder footing, they should take steps to restore public confidence in the bilateral relationship. Veteran diplomatic commentator Sami Kohen said in a telephone interview that public perceptions have shifted in recent years. "American public opinion wonders where Turkey is heading, while there seems to be anti-Americanism developing in Turkish public opinion," Kohen said.

An Ankara-based US diplomat acknowledged that "many Turkish people do not support the US decision to go to war in Iraq," adding that Washington wants to restore the full level of trust and cooperation that existed between the two nations prior to the start of the US blitz against Baghdad. "Our policy is Turkey is an important ally and friend," the diplomat said.