Russia and five other CIS countries have formalized a security alliance that potentially could help boost Moscow's strategic presence in Central Asia. At the same time, efforts to promote greater economic cohesion among CIS states continue to struggle to gain traction.
At an April 28 summit, Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan formally created the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which will attempt to provide a more efficient response to strategic problems confronting member states, specifically terrorism and narcotics trafficking.
The CSTO is an outgrowth of the 1992 Collective Security Treaty, which sought to promote greater strategic cooperation among the signatories. The organization has now committed to creating permanent institutions responsible for budget management and strategic military planning, with Russian officers likely to dominate the newly created CSTO staff. The bulk of the organization's attention and resources will be initially concentrated in Central Asia, with a rapid deployment force to be stationed at a Russian military facility at Kant, Kyrgyzstan. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Since the September 11 terrorist attacks, the United States has established a strategic presence in the region, with bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Some Russian policy makers believe the CSTO has the potential to help Moscow reestablish its high strategic profile in what traditionally has been its sphere of influence. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. According to a report in the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, some CSTO summit participants pressed Kyrgyz officials to curtail basing rights given to US forces at Manas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed the notion that Russia seeks to utilize the CSTO to reduce US influence in the region, saying that the organization would strive to contain the flow of drugs coming out of Afghanistan, and counter the threat posed by radical Islamic organizations in Central Asia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Putin stressed in a television interview that elements of the Taliban and al Qaeda are regrouping and posing a fresh threat to regional security. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
At the same time, leaders of participating states acknowledge that the CSTO remains an organization mostly on paper. They also tacitly admit that, given past experience with CIS integration initiatives, full implementation of the CSTO's strategic plans is far from assured.
Tajik President Imomali Rahmonov, who hosted the CSTO summit in Dushanbe, asserted that a "solid foundation for further efficient work" has been established for the organization. "The main stress [of the meeting] was placed on the need for strict implementation of decisions adopted with the organization," Rahmonov told Tajik television April 28.
Some political analysts believe the impetus for the formal creation of the CSTO is concern over the US tendency under the Bush administration to take a unilateralist approach on strategic issues, as recently underscored by the American military's successful campaign to topple Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
Other observers believe that with Central Asian security conditions becoming more complex, countries in the region are eager to hedge their bets by expanding cooperation with all regional powers, including China, Russia and the United States. Kazakhstan in particular is eager to pursue a "multi-vector" policy, Maulen Ashimbaev, the director of Kazakh Institute for Strategic Studies, said in an interview with the Express-K newspaper. Over time, Central Asian analysts expect existing US-Russian competition to give way to greater cooperation in addressing regional security threats.
In the days prior to the CSTO summit, two economic-oriented meetings failed to make much headway in promoting integration efforts. Officials attending an April 25 CIS summit in Moscow examined various economic and political topics. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov indicated that Russia "favors any initiatives to promote integration and to guarantee more effective work." Among the main topics of discussion was a plan by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to forge a core group within the CIS. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Some political observers say that formation of such a core group could render the larger CIS redundant.
At the CIS gathering, other member states expressed interest in possibly joining the so-called core group. And Kasyanov sought to reassure that the establishment of a "common economic space" would not leave behind those CIS states currently on the outside. Kasyanov reiterated that expert groups aim to complete a framework agreement for core group operations by September.
On April 27, members of the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan met in Dushanbe. Discussions touched on a variety of strategic subjects, including the entry of member states into the World Trade Organization and the possibility of forming an EEC customs union, without delving much into specifics. Perhaps the most prominent action taken by EEC participants was a decision to grant Armenia observer status. The EEC also expressed intent to pool resources to complete a hydro-electric power station in southern Tajikistan.
Editor's note:
Ibragim Alibekov is the pseudonym for a Kazakhstani journalist. Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.
