Political Attacks on Baku Mayor Prompt Speculation About Power Struggle in Azerbaijan

Political analysts in Baku, culling clues from state-run media, suggest jockeying within the ruling New Azerbaijan Party's hierarchy may be intensifying. Recent media attacks on Baku Mayor Hajibala Abutalibov have fueled speculation about a potential rift within President Ilham Aliyev's power base.

Abutalibov has long been the target of criticism by opposition outlets, including the Yeni Musavat newspaper. But when the official parliamentary newspaper, Azerbaijan, published an article criticizing the Baku mayor for letting the city's construction boom spin out of control, it caused a minor sensation in the Azerbaijan capital. Shortly after publication of the Azerbaijan article, several state-run broadcast media outlets aired features that were critical of Abutalibov's performance.

During a subsequent parliamentary debate, ruling party MPs both defended and chastised Abutalibov. Some pro-government deputies called on their colleagues, as well as state-run media, not to air differences in public. "I believe YAP [the ruling New Azerbaijan Party] has done a lot for Azerbaijan and the official newspaper of the parliament should refrain from these kinds of accusations and slanders," said Musa Musayev, a YAP deputy.

In addition to the Baku mayor, state-run media has criticized the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Education. The newspaper Azerbaijan said Aliyev has received thousands of complaints about the performance of both ministries. This revelation prompted some political observers to suspect that presidential Chief-of-Staff Ramiz Mehtiyev may be orchestrating a media campaign to discredit his rivals for influence within the ruling party.

Minister of Education Misir Mardanov's response to the criticism appeared to lend credence to the notion that Mehtiyev was somehow involved in the attacks. "I know which forces are behind these articles and I advise them to refrain from them," Mardanov told Lider TV. Mardanov and Ali Insanov, the Minister of Health, are widely viewed as political rivals of Mehtiyev.

The New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) has long been known for its internal rivalries among various factions, political analysts in Baku say. Some of the factions comprise politicians from the same region, such as the Nakhichevan exclave. Other groups inside the YAP are formed around common economic interests. Former president Heidar Aliyev was widely recognized as a master politician, capable of maintaining a delicate balance among factions. Aliyev's son Ilham, who became president in 2003, is widely viewed as not having anywhere near the same level of political acumen as his deceased father. Thus, many political observers predicted that Ilham might find it difficult to keep the ambitions of his top lieutenants in check. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The YAP appeared to come together in order to ensure a dynastic succession in Azerbaijan, formalized during the country's controversial presidential election last October. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Now that the father-to-son transition seems secure, the factions within the YAP may be focusing their energy on securing a greater degree of influence within the younger Aliyev's administration, some analysts suggest.

Abutalibov makes for a relatively easy political target, given the considerable criticism over the chaotic nature of Baku's growth in recent years. The construction of office buildings and other edifices has not been well regulated, critics contend, leading to a drastic reduction of green space in the capital. The mayor has also been assailed for pursuing overzealous urban renewal policies that have led to the destruction of kiosks that were a primary source of income for Azerbaijanis displaced by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In addition, many Baku residents complain about the poor quality of the city's roads.

Aliyev has not issued any public comment on the Azerbaijan newspaper criticism of the Baku mayor. However, the president is on record as having earlier instructed Abutalibov to make sure that urban development proceeds "according to the general plan of the city." Observers do not believe that the recent signs of maneuvering within the YAP threaten its ability to govern. However, some analysts say the president will have to start paying more attention to internal YAP politics in order to prevent the intra-party rivalries from becoming a problem down the road.