Azerbaijan: Trying to Keep Washington and Tehran Happy

Iran is dangling the prospect of greater cooperation on Caspian Sea energy issues in order to secure Azerbaijan's neutrality in the ongoing confrontation with the United States over Tehran's nuclear program.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, in Baku on May 4, ahead of an Economic Cooperation Organization summit. According to the official IRNA news agency, Ahmadinejad expressed a desire to increase bilateral energy cooperation. Such a development could have profound regional economic and political ramifications, given that Iranian-Azerbaijani tension has served as a major obstacle to the development of Caspian Sea energy resources. In 2001 and 2002, Iran resorted to gunboat diplomacy to force Azerbaijani to halt development of the disputed Araz-Alov-Sharg offshore oilfields [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ahmadinejad did not offer specific ideas concerning possible Azerbaijani-Iranian cooperation, although he expressed an interest in having Iran serve as an export conduit for Azerbaijani oil and gas, IRNA reported. The offer seemed clearly designed as an incentive for Azerbaijan to remain on the sidelines of the international crisis revolving around Iran's nuclear ambitions. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The US government, which is convinced Iran intends to develop atomic weapons, has openly contemplated using force to compel Iran to abandon its nuclear program. Iranian officials insist the program is designed solely for peaceful purposes. At a May 5 news conference in Baku, Ahmadinejad reiterated the Iranian government's intention to proceed with its nuclear program, while criticizing the United States. The Azeri-Press Information Agency quoted the Iranian leader as saying; "If nuclear weapons are bad, why do they [Americans] have them? If they are good, then why can't we [Iranians] possess them?"

The Iranian nuclear issue figured prominently during Aliyev's visit to Washington in late April [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Many political analysts in Baku believe US officials sought Azerbaijani support for possible efforts to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions. Aliyev publicly ruled out any involvement in such an anti-Iranian coalition.

During his Baku visit, Ahmadinejad emphasized the benefits of neutrality. IRNA reported Ahmadinejad as telling Aliyev that "national resolve on the part of the two nations to develop cooperation would neutralize the conspiracy of the enemy to sabotage Tehran-Baku relations."

Aliyev was generally tight-lipped about his discussions with Ahmadinejad. The Azerbaijani president's press service told journalists only that Aliyev welcomed the Iranian proposal to explore closer energy ties, while stressing "the importance of historical links" between Azerbaijan and its southern neighbor. At an ECO-related news conference, Aliyev indicated that he backed a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. "All issues that are provoking concern should be resolved peacefully, in the spirit of talks, to maintain the fragile stability in our region" Aliyev said.

The Aliyev administration's position is buttressed by widespread public opposition among Azerbaijanis to US policy toward Iran. "All recent surveys conducted in Azerbaijan show the raise of anti-American moods in Azerbaijani society," said Arif Yunusov, head of the Conflict Prevention Department at the Baku-based Institute for Peace and Democracy.

The ECO summit -- bringing together representatives of 10 states in the Caspian Basin, as well as Central and South Asia -- examined several regional issues, including Caspian Basin energy exports, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Aliyev expressed hope that ECO could help break the existing stalemate in Karabakh peace talks. He also asserted that Kazakhstani participation in the BTC pipeline was not needed to fill the export route to capacity. Aliyev said Azerbaijan would export upwards of 50 million tons of oil via BTC by 2008, the APA news agency reported.