Azerbaijan President Heidar Aliyev's Condition in Turkish Hospital a Closely Guarded Secret

Although officials continue to characterize President Heidar Aliyev's condition as "normal" and his treatment as "routine," they are unwilling to say precisely when the Azerbaijani leader will leave a Turkish military hospital. At the same time, Azerbaijani authorities seem increasingly sensitive amid the uncertainty surrounding Aliyev's prognosis.

Aliyev has been receiving treatment for the past three days at the elite Gulhane Military Medical Academy in the Turkish capital Ankara. On May 4, the day after Aliyev's arrival in Turkey, an Azerbaijani official insisted that the visit had been planned in advance, ANS television in Baku reported. However, the Turan news agency reported that Aliyev arrived at Gulhane in "critical" condition. The opposition Yeni Musavat daily reported May 5 that Aliyev was suffering from kidney, liver and heart "insufficiency."

Turkish officials are maintaining an information blackout over the Azerbaijani president's condition. A Turkish Foreign Ministry official told EurasiaNet that Ankara did not intend to make a statement on Aliyev's health, and referred all inquires to Azerbaijani authorities. Aliyev aides have been similarly tight-lipped. Azerbaijan's envoy to Turkey, Mammad Aliyev, told ANS that the president was in "high spirits," adding that there was "no reason for anxiety."

The official position concerning Aliyev's health – reinforced by the ambassador's comments – has been relentlessly upbeat since the president's current bout of ill-health began April 21, when he collapsed while making a speech. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. However, authorities are becoming increasingly prickly when pressed for details about the president's condition.

The first secretary in the Azerbaijani embassy in Ankara, Etibar Mamedov, explained May 5 that "President Aliyev preferred to come here [to Gulhane] as we do not have as advanced medical conditions [facilities] in Azerbaijan as in Turkey." When asked to comment on opposition allegations that Aliyev's condition is far more serious that the government is acknowledging, Mamedov become angry: "There is no problem with the president's health," he repeated. "I don't know the reason for all this speculation. What is the objective of such news on such a sensitive issue?"

Belying official claims that Aliyev is making a strong recovery is the fact that close relatives – including his son Ilham, who is widely believed to be the president's preferred successor – flew to Turkey to be at the ailing president's bedside, Turan reported. Ilham reportedly returned to Baku on May 6. In addition, access to Aliyev at the Gulhane facility is severely restricted to essential medical personnel, along with a few aides and relatives.

Azerbaijani officials are also vague when it comes to pinpointing a specific date for Aliyev's return to Baku. Some officials predicted the president will be released from Gulhane in a "few days." Others suggested that Aliyev might return to the Azerbaijani capital in time to participate in festivities to mark his 80th birthday. "You will know when he comes back," Azerbaijani Health Minister Ali Insanov told journalists in Baku. A Turkish source indicated that Aliyev's stay is likely to last longer than expected, due to the extensive testing and treatment that the president is undergoing.

Aliyev's health crisis has already caused an escalation in political tension in Baku. Late on May 4, over 30 intruders burst into Yeni Musavat's editorial offices and caused widespread damage. During the president's illness, the opposition newspaper has often painted a far more dire picture of Aliyev's condition than official accounts. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The leader of the attack has been identified as Faramaz Allahverdiyev, a nationalist political activist. However, Yeni Musavat editor Rauf Arifoglu asserted that the government was behind the incident, citing statements carried by state-controlled television that called for a "reprisal" against the newspaper for its reporting of the Aliyev health crisis.

"We had informed our readers about a possible provocation against us. Our fears have now been corroborated," Arifoglu told Turan on May 5. "Three days ago we asked the police to ensure the security of our office. They installed a police post at our doors, but it was removed two-and-a-half hours prior to the attack."

The head of the Baku office for Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Peter Burkhard, condemned the incident, describing it as "an attack on freedom of speech," ANS reported.

Presidential spokesman Ali Hasanov disavowed any government role in the attack, but he went on to pillory Yeni Musavat over its coverage on the Aliyev health issue. "Everyone knows that this, as well as a number of other newspapers, is engaged in spreading lies and making libellous claims from morning until night," Hasanov said.

Some political observers suggest that the way authorities are handling Aliyev's illness, including Hasanov's reaction to the Yeni Musavat attack, may be a reflection of their concern over their own political future. If Aliyev were to die, the political transition process would, at present, seem unclear, some analysts suggest.

Under Azerbaijan's constitution, Prime Minister Artur Rasizade will become interim president if Aliyev is unable, for whatever reason, to fulfil his executive duties. But Rasizade is currently in the United States – reportedly recovering from eye surgery. Many observers believe Rasizade was dispatched to the United States to clear the way for Ilham Aliyev to become interim president, if circumstances warranted such a move. Some question, however, whether Ilham has sufficient support within the Azerbaijani political elite to succeed his father.